El Niño could soon turn deadly predictable, scientists warn

Science DailyCenterEN 3 min read 100% complete October 24, 2025 at 03:49 PM

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A study published in Nature Communications by researchers from South Korea, USA, Germany, and Ireland warns that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) could intensify dramatically over the next several decades due to global warming. The advanced climate models used predict ENSO will transition from irregular El Niño-La Niña cycles to a more consistent pattern with larger sea surface temperature fluctuations by the end of the century. This shift may cause stronger rainfall variations in regions like Southern California and the Iberian Peninsula, increasing hydroclimate risks. Enhanced air-sea coupling and variable weather in the tropics contribute to this transition. The study suggests that ENSO could synchronize with other climate systems such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) mode.

Key Topics & Entities

Germany 40% Ireland 40% South Korea 50% US ×250% Nature Communications 60% University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa 70% International Pacific Research Center 80% Malte F. Stuecker ×2100%

Keywords

el niño-southern oscillation 100% climate variability 90% global climate systems 80% high-resolution climate models 70% climate tipping point 60% sea surface temperature fluctuations 50% hydroclimate 'whiplash' effects 50% indian ocean dipole 40% tropical north atlantic mode 40% north atlantic oscillation 40%

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University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa

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el niño-southern oscillation climate variability global climate systems high-resolution climate models climate tipping point sea surface temperature fluctuations hydroclimate 'whiplash' effects indian ocean dipole tropical north atlantic mode north atlantic oscillation

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