All signs point to a rebound in Hong Kong’s housing market: Morgan Stanley analyst

South China Morning PostEN 1 min read 100% complete by Peggy YeJanuary 25, 2026 at 03:00 AM

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Morgan Stanley analyst Praveen Choudhary predicts a potential rebound in Hong Kong's housing market after four years of decline. Choudhary forecasts a 10% rise in home prices by 2026, signaling a shift to a new upcycle. This prediction is based on a combination of factors, including falling borrowing costs, rising rents, and the delayed impact of policy changes. A key factor highlighted is the government's 2024 decision to abolish stamp duties, previously imposing levies up to 30% on buyers and sellers. While the initial response was muted, Choudhary believes this policy change, alongside other factors, is now contributing to a shift in market momentum.

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Key Player Opposition Context

India 30% Tsuen Wan 30% Asia 40% Morgan Stanley 80% Praveen Choudhary ×390% Hong Kong ×2100%

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housing market 100% hong kong 90% rebound 80% home prices 70% stamp duties 60% market upcycle 60% borrowing costs 50% policy changes 50% rising rents 40%

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Positive

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South China Morning Post

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