Aid cuts could cause 22m avoidable deaths by 2030, study finds

The Guardian - World NewsCenter-LeftEN 4 min read 100% complete by Kat Lay, global health correspondentFebruary 3, 2026 at 08:00 AM

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A recent study published in the Lancet Global Health has found that aid cuts could lead to over 22 million avoidable deaths by 2030, including 5.4 million children under five. The researchers analyzed data from the past two decades and forecasted three future scenarios: "business-as-usual", "mild defunding", and "severe defunding". Under severe defunding, about 22.6 million more deaths were predicted by 2030, while mild defunding would result in 9.4 million excess deaths. The study found that aid has been linked to a significant reduction in child mortality rates and infectious disease deaths. Aid cuts have already been implemented by several countries, including the US and UK, with further reductions expected. The researchers warn that the effects of these cuts are uncertain and may be more severe than previously thought.

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Nigeria 40% Sweden 40% Germany 40% Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) 50% Reform UK 50% Davide Rasella ×260% UK ×270% United States ×480%

Keywords

aid cuts 100% avoidable deaths 90% child mortality 80% developing world 70% donor countries 70% infectious diseases 60% budget cuts 60% foreign aid 50% malnutrition 40%