US traders make big profits betting on Maduro’s capture in January

The Guardian - World NewsCenter-LeftEN 2 min read 100% complete by Simon GoodleyJanuary 5, 2026 at 05:44 PM

US traders make big profits betting on Maduro’s capture in January

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AI Summary

medium article 2 min

Traders on prediction markets, specifically Polymarket.com, profited significantly by betting on Nicolás Maduro's capture in January. One trader seemingly invested $30,000 on Friday and gained over $436,000 by Saturday after the announcement. Data indicates a sharp increase in the implied probability of Maduro's removal from power in the hours leading up to the news. Prediction markets, where individuals bet on the outcomes of various events, have grown in popularity in the US, with increasing trading volumes. These platforms allow users to wager on binary outcomes, and have attracted attention from figures like Donald Trump Jr.

Key Entities & Roles

Key Player Opposition Context

Wall Street 30% Flutter.com 30% Marco Rubio 40% JD Vance 40% Kalshi 40% UK ×240% Donald Trump Jr 50% United States ×260% Donald Trump 70% Venezuela 80% Polymarket ×580% Nicolás Maduro (Maduro) ×590%

Keywords

prediction markets 100% nicolás maduro 90% polymarket 80% gambling 70% venezuela 60% profits 60% wagers 50% binary bets 40%

Sentiment Analysis

Neutral

Score: 0.10

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Source

The Guardian - World News

Political Lean

Center-Left (-0.40)

Far LeftCenterFar Right

Classification Confidence

90%

Geographic Perspective

Venezuela

This article was automatically classified using rule-based analysis. The political bias score ranges from -1 (far left) to +1 (far right).

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prediction markets nicolás maduro polymarket gambling venezuela profits wagers binary bets

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