Wager platform Polymarket not paying out on bets on US invasion of Venezuela

The Guardian - World NewsCenter-LeftEN 2 min read 100% complete by Lauren AlmeidaJanuary 7, 2026 at 09:56 AM

AI Summary

medium article 2 min

Polymarket, a US-based online wagering platform, is facing criticism for not paying out on bets regarding a US invasion of Venezuela following the capture of Nicolás Maduro. Traders had placed over $10.5 million on the outcome, with a large portion betting on an invasion by January 31, 2026. Polymarket argues that the capture of Maduro doesn't constitute an invasion as defined by their terms, which specify "US military operations intended to establish control." This decision has angered traders who believe the action qualifies as such, accusing the platform of arbitrarily redefining terms. Polymarket gained regulatory approval to operate in the US last year, and Donald Trump Jr. has an advisory role within the company.

Key Entities & Roles

Key Player Opposition Context

Kalshi 30% Great Britain 30% Donald Trump Jr 40% United States ×260% Donald Trump ×260% Venezuela ×270% Nicolás Maduro (Maduro) ×580% Polymarket ×890%

Keywords

polymarket 100% prediction markets 90% wager platform 80% us invasion of venezuela 80% nicolás maduro 70% gambling 60% binary bets 50% regulatory approval 40%