IMF raises China’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.5%, citing US ‘truce’ and stimulus roll-out

South China Morning PostCenter-RightEN 2 min read 100% complete by Ralph JenningsJanuary 19, 2026 at 11:00 AM

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medium article 2 min

The IMF raised China's 2026 economic growth forecast to 4.5%, a 0.3% increase from its October projection. This revision, detailed in the IMF's World Economic Outlook, is attributed to a US-China trade truce established in November 2025 and the implementation of domestic stimulus measures in China. The truce involved the US scaling back tariffs and China easing export controls. China's stimulus package, initiated in 2024, aims to boost household spending through expanded credit access and new consumption initiatives. The IMF also increased its 2026 US growth forecast by 0.3% to 2.4%, citing fiscal support, lower interest rates, and the reduced impact of trade barriers.

Key Entities & Roles

Key Player Opposition Context

National Bureau of Statistics 50% Washington 50% Beijing ×260% Donald Trump 60% United States ×580% China ×690% International Monetary Fund ×490%

Keywords

economic growth 90% china 80% united states 70% imf 70% stimulus measures 60% trade truce 60% economic forecast 50% tariff rates 50% export controls 40%