AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Connecticut’s state primary

Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont, center, gestures toward U.S. Rep. John Larson, D-Conn., during a campaign event, Saturday, July 25, 2026, in Bristol, Conn. (AP Photo/Jessica Hill) Updated [hour]:[minute] [AMPM] [timezone], [monthFull] [day], [year] WASHINGTON (AP) — Two veteran Democratic incumbents in Connecticut face strong challenges in a state primary on Tuesday.The contests take place as elements within the party look to redefine the Democratic brand ahead of the midterm elections by replacing old guard figures with younger and often more progressive alternatives.Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont is running for a third term but must first clear a challenge from state Rep. Josh Elliott. Both candidates have raised just shy of $400,000 in contributions from individual donors. Nonetheless, Lamont, a wealthy former cable entrepreneur, has far outspent Elliott, thanks to $9.5 million in personal funds he’s invested in his campaign. Elliott has received about $3.8 million from the state’s public election funding program.A primary upset by Elliott, along with additional Tuesday primaries in Minnesota and Wisconsin, could extend a progressive winning streak that began this summer with the defeat of Democratic incumbents in New York City and Colorado and continued with a high-stakes victory in the Michigan U.S. Senate primary on August 4. The Democratic nominee will face Republican state Sen. Ryan Fazio in November. Republicans last controlled the governorship from 1995 to 2011. Lamont was first elected in 2018 with 49% of the vote and reelected in 2022 with 56%.In the 1st Congressional District, longtime Democratic U.S. Rep. John Larson is running for a 15th term. Challenging him for the nomination are former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin, Hartford Board of Education member Ruth Fortune and state Rep. Jillian Gilchrest. 6 MIN READ 6 MIN READ 4 MIN READ This year marks Larson’s first primary challenge since he was first elected in 1998. He won a close primary that year with 46% of the vote but has not appeared on a primary ballot in his subsequent 13 reelection bids. Bronin has slightly outraised and outspent Larson in the campaign overall, although Larson had a slight edge in terms of available cash heading into the primary campaign’s final three weeks. Gilchrest and Fortune trailed far behind in fundraising.Larson turned 78 in July. In 2025, an incident on the House floor sparked concerns over his health and age when he suffered what he later described as a complex partial seizure while delivering a speech. He said the episode, which caused him to briefly but abruptly stop speaking, was related to a heart condition that he now treats with medication. The district is heavily Democratic. Larson received 63% of the vote in his 2024 reelection campaign. Then-Vice President Kamala Harris received about 61% of the district vote in the presidential race.All 36 state Senate seats and all 151 state House seats are up in 2026. Democrats hold two-to-one majorities in both chambers.Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:When do polls close?Polls close at 8 p.m. ET.What’s on the ballot?The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for U.S. House, governor, state Senate and state House. Who gets to vote?Voters registered with a political party may participate only in that party’s primary. Democrats may not vote in the Republican primary or vice versa. Independent or unaffiliated voters may not participate in either primary.How many voters are there?As of October 2025, there were about 2.5 million registered voters in Connecticut, including about 878,000 Democrats and about 529,000 Republicans.How many people actually vote?About 114,000 Democratic primary ballots and about 94,000 Republican primary ballots were cast in the 2022 state primaries.How much of the vote is cast early or by absentee ballot?Early voting was enacted in Connecticut after 2022. There was no statewide Democratic primary in 2024, but about 17% of the Republican primary vote in the 2024 state primary was cast early in-person or by mail.As of Friday, about 43,000 Democratic primary ballots and about 3,900 Republican primary ballots had already been cast in Tuesday’s election.When are early and absentee votes released?Connecticut runs elections at the town and city level. There are 169 separate jurisdictions administering local elections and they vary in terms of how and when they release results. In many of the larger jurisdictions, results from a mix of voting methods are released together throughout the night. How long does vote-counting usually take?In the 2024 general election, the AP first reported results at 8:12 p.m. ET, or 12 minutes after polls closed. The vote count reached the halfway mark at 12:25 a.m. ET. By 2:06 p.m. ET the day after Election Day, about 90% of the total vote had been counted.When will the AP declare a winner? The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why. How do recounts work? Recounts in Connecticut are automatic if the vote margin is less than 0.5% of the total votes cast but does not exceed 2,000 votes. Recounts are also automatic in races where the margin is less than 20 votes or in the case of a tie vote. If a recount results in a tie vote, a runoff election (called an “adjourned election” in Connecticut) is held. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.Are we there yet? As of Tuesday, there will be 84 days until the 2026 midterm elections.___The AP’s Matthew Junkroski contributed to this report.___Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/. Yoon is an elections and democracy reporter for The Associated Press, with a focus on analyzing vote and demographic data and explaining the intricacies of the electoral process. He is now covering his seventh presidential campaign cycle.