Ukraine’s security guarantees: What are they and why might they fall short?

Kyiv is ready to send an agreement to its Parliament and US Congress, but Ukrainians say their safety is far from guaranteed.Residents walk at the site of a Russian drone attack in Odesa, Ukraine, January 19, 2026 [Nina Liashonok/Reuters]Published On 26 Jan 2026Kyiv, Ukraine – In early January, leaders from more than 30 Western countries gathered in Paris, France, to sketch out a new framework of security guarantees for Ukraine that would take effect if a ceasefire with Russia were to be agreed.The so-called “coalition of the willing” issued declarations of intent, including plans for a United States-led ceasefire monitoring mechanism and the possible deployment of multinational forces led by France and the United Kingdom, to ensure Ukraine’s defence and deter future aggression.Recommended Stories list of 4 itemslist 1 of 4Russian ‘shadow fleet’ tanker diverted to French port by naval forceslist 2 of 4US-brokered talks close without breakthrough after Russia bombards Ukrainelist 3 of 4Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 1,431list 4 of 4‘Not optimistic’: In Ukraine, scepticism surrounds peace talksend of listFrench President Emmanuel Macron called the guarantees “robust”, while British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said in the event of a deal, the UK and France “will establish military hubs across Ukraine and build protected facilities for weapons and military equipment to support Ukraine’s defensive needs”.Others were more cautious.Chancellor Friedrich Merz said German forces could join the initiative to monitor a ceasefire, but would be based in a neighbouring country.On Sunday, while on a visit to Lithuania, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the government was “100 percent ready” to send an agreement on security guarantees to the US Congress and Ukrainian Parliament for ratification.“For us, security guarantees are first and foremost guarantees of security from the United States. The document is 100 percent ready, and we are waiting for our partners to confirm the date and place when we will sign it,” Zelenskyy told a news conference in Vilnius.However, the document has yet to be made public and details on how they would be enforced in practice remain unresolved.“If it’s another document of wishful thinking without any real practical tools, it’s better not even to start this discussion,” Volodymyr Omelyan, Ukraine’s former minister of infrastructure, told Al Jazeera.Many Ukrainians feel uncertain about their security, both now and when imagining a post-war future.“Frankly, when I hear security guarantees, I am sceptical,” said Omelyan. “If there is commitment from them to secure Ukrainian independence, with money, with political support, with military supplies, with technology, then it is all serious.”Without these guarantees, Omelyan believes that Russia could claim a ceasefire violation had taken place in a bid to continue its aggression.The question of violations of any agreement is a crucial factor for Olesia Horiainova, deputy head of the Kyiv-based think tank Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Centre.She said Ukraine cannot be in a position where it relies solely on its allies fulfilling their guarantees.“Battles are won by armies, but wars are won by logistics,” she said, adding that currently Russia is accumulating weapons “en masse”. “Therefore, only Ukraine’s military and economic superiority, or at least parity with Russia, can guarantee the stability of any truce.”To achieve this, she said, Ukraine would need to wait for arms deliveries and receive investment from its partners in its defence sector.“In 2025, Ukraine’s defence industry had a capacity of 35 billion euros [$42bn] but was only operating at 50 percent capacity … due to lack of funding; in 2026, with adequate investment, this potential could double,” she said.Oleksandr Khara, head of the Centre for Defence Strategies think tank in Kyiv, said independent defence production would free Ukraine from the “constraints” imposed by successive US administrations, including those of President Joe Biden and the incumbent, Donald Trump.Khara has said these guarantees are simply an attempt for the Trump administration to “sugar-coat the bitter pill” of territorial concessions.He said there should be more realistic terminology, preferring the term “security assurances” rather than “genuine guarantees involving a possible military response under defined circumstances”.A member of the National Police Special Purpose Battalion of Zaporizhia region prepares a Gara combat drone before flying over positions of Russian troops, near the front-line town of Pokrovsk in Donetsk region [File: Reuters]Response timeAfter the Paris summit, US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff said the “strong” security protocols were meant to deter further attacks in Ukraine.However, Ukrainian analysts say Kyiv’s partners lack a sense of urgency, raising questions about how quickly its allies could mobilise.Omelyan, who has firsthand experience of fighting, said in case of violations, a response could take weeks or months, time the Ukrainian military would not have.If there was a violation, the reality is the “Ukrainian army will have to fight [Russia] on the first day; if we are capable of doing so, we keep the defence line, and we fight back, and we keep Ukraine’s independence. If we are not capable as a nation and as the army, we fail,” he said.‘Guarantees always sound good on paper’Amid high-level diplomatic talks about a potential ceasefire, Ukrainians Al Jazeera has interviewed across several cities say they are more concerned with their everyday battles – such as staying warm as Russia continues its attacks on its infrastructure.When such talks occur, Ukrainians are forced to prepare for potential escalations.As Ukrainian, Russian, US and Emirati officials met on Friday and Saturday in Abu Dhabi, Russia sent more than 100 drones towards Kyiv along with missiles on Friday night, forcing people to venture out in pitch darkness to seek shelter in the metro system.After almost four years of war, many say they do not follow these developments day-to-day.Nazar Khomyn, a 24-year-old developer from Lviv, told Al Jazeera, “These guarantees always sound good on paper, but after so long at war, this feels like just words.”