The ‘Asian water tower’ is starting to wobble, computer simulations show

“Asia’s water tower” is heading towards a more unpredictable and unstable future, according to a new study measuring the Tibetan Plateau’s stability.The study, published on August 21 in Nature Communications, examined the entropy of the region to gauge how much chaos or disorder was building up in a complex system.The results were released just days before a catastrophic flash flood struck the Nepal-China border, killing hundreds and leaving a trail of devastation along the way.Chen Xiaosong, a physicist at the school of systems science at Beijing Normal University and lead author of the study, said on Thursday that from now to the end of this century, “the increase of soil water and the intensification of glacier melting [in the Tibetan Plateau] will constantly trigger such geological disasters”.Countries along the Himalayas could also face greater risks. “India will definitely be affected, but the specific impacts still require further analysis and research,” he added.Chen’s team examined the plateau’s soil moisture system from 2000 to 2024, which is closely linked to the water and climate patterns affecting nearly two billion people across South and East Asia.