Aviation faces hotter, stormier skies – and passengers might have to accept more disruption

It is not clear whether this means we will actually get more thunderstorms in the UK and across Europe, as so many variables are involved beyond the simple matter of energy and moisture. Some parts of the world may even get fewer. However, studies have shown that higher latitudes, particularly in the northern hemisphere, will see the biggest increases in favourable conditions for storms to form, and those that do may be more violent. According to the UK's Met Office, "while we may not see more thunderstorms overall, the ones we do experience could be more impactful".Where possible, pilots will avoid flying through convective weather. Even though aircraft are designed to cope with severe conditions, storms can produce intense turbulence, capable of damaging the structural frame of the plane, as well as throwing people around the cabin if they are not strapped in. Hail can also be a big problem, potentially cracking windscreens or causing engine problems. So, however much inconvenience it may cause passengers, crews will invariably put safety first.AFP via Getty ImagesNew technology helps pilots navigate tricky flying conditionsOnboard weather radars can help aircrew to see up to 320 nautical miles ahead. They also have access to live weather forecasting resources online. But thunderstorms can move quickly and, according to Prof Guy Gratton, an expert in aeronautics at Cranfield University, these systems are essentially "tactical rather than strategic". In other words, although they enable pilots to see storm cells on their screens from a relatively short distance away, and request a diversion, they do not allow for detailed long-distance planning.The result is that unplanned diversions often happen late in flight, which is likely to mean burning more fuel. If storm delays do become more common, says Andrew Charlton, then aircraft will have to load more fuel as a matter of course, in case there is trouble brewing ahead. "Aircraft are going to have to fly further, and they're going to have to factor in the assumption they're going to fly further," he says. For an airline, fuel is one of its major costs – and if the fuel bill goes up, he says, it is inevitable passengers will pay more.More intense storms would be likely to make air traffic management in busy regions harder and potentially lead to more delays and cancellations. However, it is possible some of this could be mitigated using new technologies.Both Heathrow and Gatwick, for example, have moved away from mandating minimum distances between incoming aircraft in favour of a system which continually calculates spacing times based on wind speeds and aircraft types. In practice, this is meant to allow controllers to reduce the distance between landing aircraft, particularly in high winds, and get them on the ground more quickly. According to NATS, it has successfully improved landing rates and reduced delays by a significant margin.However, there could be other effects from more severe storms as well. Heavier rainfall, for instance, increases the likelihood of flooding. In a worst case, this can paralyse airport operations, as happened in April 2024 when torrential downpours hit Dubai International Airport. It briefly had to close its runways, while disruption lasted for two days. More than 1,200 flights were cancelled, affecting tens of thousands of passengers.