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FRI · 2026-09-25 · 00:35 GMTBRIEF NSR-2026-0925-113917
News/Brazil’s Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro still essentially tied in…
NSR-2026-0925-113917News Report·EN·Political Strategy

Brazil’s Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro still essentially tied in new poll

A recent Datafolha poll in Brazil indicates a tight race between Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro for the upcoming presidential election. In a simulated run-off, Lula holds a two-percentage-point lead with 47% of the vote compared to Bolsonaro's 45%, a result considered a technical tie within the poll's margin of error.

Al Jazeera StaffAl JazeeraFiled 2026-09-25 · 00:35 GMTLean · CenterRead · 2 min
Brazil’s Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro still essentially tied in new poll
Al JazeeraFIG 01
Reading time
2min
Word count
268words
Sources cited
3cited
Entities identified
11entities
Quality score
100%
§ 01

Briefing Summary

AI-generated
NEWSAR · AI

A recent Datafolha poll in Brazil indicates a tight race between Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro for the upcoming presidential election. In a simulated run-off, Lula holds a two-percentage-point lead with 47% of the vote compared to Bolsonaro's 45%, a result considered a technical tie within the poll's margin of error. In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with 40% against Bolsonaro's 36%. These findings align with other recent polls, suggesting a closely contested election. Lula is seeking a fourth term, while Bolsonaro is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. The poll surveyed 2,002 people between September 22 and 23.

Confidence 0.90Sources 3Claims 5Entities 11
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Article analysis

Model · rule-based
Framing
Political Strategy
Tone
Measured
AI-assessed
CalmNeutralAlarmist
Factuality
0.90 / 1.00
Factual
LowHigh
Sources cited
3
Well sourced
FewMany
§ 03

Key claims

5 extracted
01

A Quaest poll showed Bolsonaro with 42% and Lula with 41% in a potential run-off.

statisticQuaest poll
Confidence
1.00
02

Senator Flavio Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.

factual
Confidence
1.00
03

In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with 40% of the vote, followed by Bolsonaro with 36%.

statisticDatafolha poll
Confidence
1.00
04

The result of the simulated run-off is within the poll's margin of error of 2 percentage points, indicating a technical tie.

statisticDatafolha poll
Confidence
1.00
05

A Datafolha poll shows Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flavio Bolsonaro by 47% to 45% in a simulated run-off.

statisticDatafolha poll
Confidence
1.00
§ 04

Full report

2 min read · 268 words
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is up 2 points, but that’s still within the poll’s margin of error.⁠Brazilian President ⁠Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has maintained a two-percentage-point lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, ⁠his main challenger, in a potential run-off ahead of October’s presidential election, a Datafolha poll has shown.In poll results released Thursday, Lula would receive 47 percent of the vote compared with 45 percent for Bolsonaro in a simulated run-off. A previous Datafolha poll last week had ‌Lula leading Bolsonaro by 46 percent to 44 percent.The result also represents a technical tie as it falls within the poll’s margin of error of 2 percentage points.In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with ⁠40 percent of the vote, followed ⁠by Bolsonaro (36 percent), Augusto Cury (5 percent), Ronaldo Caiado (4 percent) and Renan Santos (3 percent).The previous poll showed the leftist president with 39 percent against the ⁠right-wing senator’s 36 percent.Senator Bolsonaro is the eldest son of ⁠former President Jair Bolsonaro, who ⁠is serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting to overturn his 2022 election defeat to Lula.Lula is seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term as Brazil’s president.If no candidate ‌wins more than 50 percent of valid votes in the first round, the two frontrunners advance ‌to ‌a run-off.Datafolha surveyed 2,002 people between September 22 and 23.Earlier this week, two other polls showed similar results.A Quaest poll released on Monday showed Bolsonaro with 42 percent of voter support in a potential run-off, versus 41 percent for Lula.Meanwhile, a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll has Lula receiving 46 percent of voter support, compared with 45 percent for Bolsonaro in a potential run-off.
§ 05

Entities

11 identified
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Keywords & salience

9 terms
lula
1.00
flavio bolsonaro
1.00
presidential election
1.00
poll results
0.90
run-off
0.80
margin of error
0.70
brazil
0.60
voter support
0.50
technical tie
0.40
§ 07

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