What could happen if the US strikes Iran? Here are seven scenarios

BBC News - WorldCenterEN 5 min read 100% complete January 29, 2026 at 07:43 AM

AI Summary

long article 5 min

The US appears poised to potentially strike Iran. The article outlines possible outcomes if President Trump orders an attack. One scenario involves targeted strikes against military and nuclear sites, leading to a transition to democracy, though similar interventions in Iraq and Libya resulted in chaos. Another possibility is the regime survives but moderates its policies, curtailing support for militias and nuclear programs. A third, considered more likely, is the collapse of the regime and its replacement by military rule, given the regime's unpopularity and the strength of its security apparatus. The article highlights the unpredictability of the situation and the range of potential consequences.

Key Entities & Roles

Key Player Opposition Context

Bashar Al-Assad 30% Iraq 40% Middle East 40% Syria 40% Libya 40% Basij 50% Ayatollah Ali Khamenei 60% Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) ×270% Donald Trump ×280% United States ×490% Iran ×10100%

Keywords

us strike iran 100% military intervention 70% political transition 60% regime collapse 60% islamic revolutionary guards corps 50% nuclear program 50% ballistic missile 40% democracy 40%