Can Trump’s ‘madman theory’ reshape Iran and the Middle East?

In 2026, President Trump is employing a "madman theory" of foreign policy towards Iran, characterized by heavy threats and calibrated military actions to pressure them into a new deal. This deal reportedly includes ending Iran's nuclear program, limiting its ballistic missiles, and ceasing support for regional allies. Trump's approach, reminiscent of Nixon's strategy, aims to make Iran question how far the U.S. is willing to go, even irrationally. Examples of this include the 2020 assassination of General Soleimani and, more recently, military movements towards Iranian waters. The goal is to deter Iran and force concessions, though it risks escalating tensions if Iran feels it has nothing to lose. Trump claims he doesn't necessarily support regime change but leaves the possibility open.

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