Zero net migration would shrink UK economy by 3.6%, says thinktank

The Guardian - World NewsEN 2 min read 100% complete by Tom KnowlesFebruary 4, 2026 at 06:00 AM

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A report by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) predicts that zero net migration would shrink the UK economy by 3.6% by 2040. This scenario, driven by falling birthrates and decreased migration, would halt population growth around 70 million by 2030. While GDP per capita might initially rise, the overall economy would weaken due to a smaller, aging workforce and reduced tax revenues. The thinktank forecasts a budget deficit increase of £37 billion by 2040, requiring the government to borrow more. NIESR warns that unless fertility rates increase, zero net migration would necessitate significant tax rises to maintain fiscal sustainability, potentially hindering economic growth.

Key Entities & Roles

Key Player Opposition Context

Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) 60% Benjamin Caswell ×370% National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) ×380% United Kingdom ×690%

Keywords

zero net migration 100% uk economy 90% economic growth 80% budget deficit 70% tax rises 70% ageing population 60% gdp per capita 50% niesr 50% population growth 40%