As US toughens stance, how exposed is China to Iranian and Venezuelan oil?

AI Summary
China's access to discounted Iranian and Venezuelan oil is increasingly threatened by a stricter US stance, potentially forcing Chinese refineries to seek more expensive alternatives from countries like Canada and Brazil. While official data shows minimal direct crude imports from Iran and Venezuela, industry data indicates significant "off-the-books" flows. In 2023, Kpler estimated that Iranian crude accounted for 13% of China's seaborne imports, while Venezuelan oil made up less than 4%. To mitigate potential disruptions, China is expanding domestic fossil fuel production, accelerating its transition to electric vehicles, and maintaining strategic oil reserves. The US has increased pressure, warning of tariffs on countries trading with Iran, although it has issued licenses for American firms to trade Venezuelan crude.
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