China could overtake the US economically – and still risk war in Taiwan Strait: survey

South China Morning PostEN 2 min read 100% complete by Xinmei ShenFebruary 10, 2026 at 09:02 PM

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A recent Atlantic Council survey of geopolitical forecasters suggests China could become the world's largest economy by 2036, although experts are split on whether it will lead in technological innovation and diplomatic influence, where the US currently holds a narrow lead. Despite the potential economic shift, the survey overwhelmingly indicates that the US is expected to remain the dominant military power. The report highlights the possibility of China attempting to take Taiwan by force, even with the US maintaining military superiority. The survey underscores the potential for the US and China to be peer competitors in key areas, with the US needing to maintain its edge to avoid being overtaken. The findings were discussed at an Atlantic Council event in Washington.

Key Entities & Roles

Key Player Opposition Context

Hong Kong ×230% Jimmy Lai ×230% Global China Hub 40% Washington 40% Melanie Hart 50% Taiwan Strait 60% Atlantic Council ×270% Taiwan 70% China ×890% United States ×990%

Keywords

us 100% china 100% economic power 90% military power 80% taiwan strait 70% geopolitical 60% technological innovation 50% diplomatic influence 50% survey 40%