CBO: US Federal deficits and debt to worsen over next decade

Al JazeeraCenterEN 3 min read 100% complete by By AP and ReutersFebruary 11, 2026 at 09:42 PM

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A Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report released in February 2026 projects that US federal deficits and debt will worsen over the next decade. The report attributes this to increased spending on Social Security, Medicare, and debt service payments. Factored into the analysis are the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," higher tariffs, and stricter immigration policies implemented by the Trump administration. The CBO projects the deficit for fiscal year 2026 to be 5.8 percent of GDP, with the deficit-to-GDP ratio averaging 6.1 percent over the next decade, reaching 6.7 percent in 2036. While higher tariffs are projected to raise federal revenue, they are also expected to cause higher inflation from 2026 to 2029. The rising debt is projected to reach 120 percent of GDP, potentially crowding out government spending on infrastructure and education.