Why Starmer’s latest U-turn over local elections could be a gift for Reform

Keir Starmer was challenged on Monday morning over the list of U-turns he has made since entering government less than two years ago, including on cuts to winter fuel payments, cuts to disability benefits and hikes in inheritance tax for farmers.“I am a pragmatist. I am a common-sense merchant,” he told the BBC presenter Jeremy Vine in his defence.Just two hours later, his government was announcing yet another reversal as it abandoned plans to delay local elections for 30 councils in England. And, for all the prime minister’s insistence that his willingness to change course is a sign of his pragmatic streak, the announcement delighted his opponents and infuriated his own colleagues.“Predictable chaos from a useless government that cannot make basic decisions,” posted Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative leader. “This is a zombie government. U-turn after U-turn after U-turn.”Nigel Farage, whose legal appeal had prompted the government’s change of heart, called for the resignation of the local government secretary, Steve Reed, posting: “The government tried to cancel democracy. They have been defeated.”Labour MPs were infuriated, with one accusing the government of making “crap decisions”. Another added: “You can’t hide from the electorate.”“Most of the colleagues I’ve spoken to are livid,” added a third.So how did they get into this mess?Ministers first set out their proposals to simplify local government structures in December 2024, including proposals to eliminate smaller district councils where there were was also a county council, and for some small neighbouring authorities to merge.The following year, nine local authorities applied successfully to delay their local elections while they worked on the reorganisation plans – a decision that caused some disquiet but not a full-on political backlash.Last December, however, the government wrote once more to affected local authorities asking if they wanted to delay this year’s local elections. And when 30 councils – including five that had already delayed by a year – said they did, it caused fury among opposition parties, as well as some in Labour.Out of the 30 councils, 21 are led by Labour, five by the Tories, two by the Liberal Democrats, one by an independent and one by a Green. The predominance of Labour councils led to accusations by opposition politicians – especially the Reform leader Nigel Farage – of a political stitch up to keep Labour in power longer than they otherwise would have been.For weeks, ministers had defended the delays, insisting they were necessary to allow authorities to get on with the process of eliminating unnecessary bureaucracy without the distraction of holding elections.“We must move at pace to remove the confusion and waste of doubled-up bureaucracy,” Reed told the Commons last month. “I have asked councils to tell me where holding elections this year to positions that will rapidly be abolished would slow down making these vital reforms, which will benefit local people, and I have listened to what councils told me.”Government sources say Reed was warned that the decision could lead to a legal challenge, but that it only became clear once a review had been lodged by Farage that the government was likely to lose it.The formal decision to abandon the delays was taken by Matthew Pennycook, the housing minister.Officials say it is normal for legally sensitive reversals such as this to be decided by a minister in the same department who has not been involved in the original decision. The Conservatives, however, said the decision-making process raised questions about Reed’s suitability to continue in his role, and Farage called outright for him to be sacked.While all major parties are now scrambling to find candidates to field in areas where they had not expected elections, it is Reform that believes it has most to gain politically from the U-turn.Farage’s party was already expecting to make significant gains in England in May at the expense of the Tories, but Monday’s decision appears to have expanded his horizons.Locations where the party is expecting to do well now include Basildon borough council, Cannock Chase district council, Harlow borough council, West Sussex borough council and Thurrock council.“You can look at Norfolk, Suffolk, East Sussex and West Sussex, and you can say, well, these are the Tory heartlands,” Farage said on Monday. “But I think there’s going to be a degree of punishment voting going on when these elections happen. So I fancy our chances there.”