A speedy pardon in the Jimmy Lai case is unlikely

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Following Jimmy Lai's 20-year sentence for national security offenses in Hong Kong on February 9th, he has two weeks to decide whether to appeal the convictions and/or sentences. International figures, including representatives from the UK, US, and EU, have called for Lai's release on humanitarian grounds, citing his age and health. However, these calls do not address Lai's existing five-year, nine-month sentence for fraud, which he received in December 2022. Eighteen years of the new sentence will run consecutively to the fraud sentence. Lai's earliest possible release date from the fraud sentence, with good behavior, is June 2024, otherwise it will be May 2028. The length of Lai's trial and the legal complexities involved suggest any appeal process will be lengthy.
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