A speedy pardon in the Jimmy Lai case is unlikely

After being sentenced to 20 years’ imprisonment for national security offences on February 9, Apple Daily founder Jimmy Lai Chee-ying will decide if he wishes to appeal. He may challenge his convictions and/or sentences and has about two weeks to make up his mind. Given the length of his trial (156 days), the mountain of evidence and the legal issues, it will take time for any appeal to be resolved.Meanwhile, foreign actors have turned their attention to securing Lai’s early release. The lead counsel in his international legal team, Caoilfhionn Gallagher KC, called on “leaders from around the world to speak with one voice in their demand for China to free Jimmy Lai so he can come home to his family in London at last”. However, she did not indicate how his release might be engineered.When British Prime Minister Keir Starmer visited China last month, he raised his concerns over Lai’s case with the Chinese government. After the sentencing, British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said, “we will rapidly engage further on Mr Lai’s case”. She called on the Hong Kong authorities to “release him on humanitarian grounds, so that he may be reunited with his family”.US Secretary of State Marco Rubio similarly urged the authorities “to grant Mr Lai humanitarian parole”. The European Union’s foreign affairs spokesperson, Anitta Hipper, called for Lai’s immediate release “in consideration of his advanced age and health condition”.Although these statements came in the wake of Lai’s national security sentences, nobody referred to the reason he is currently imprisoned. He is now serving a sentence of five years and nine months imprisonment imposed for two fraud offences in December 2022.If he qualifies for a one-third remission for good behaviour, his earliest release date from that sentence is in June. Otherwise, it will be in May 2028. Either way, 18 years of Lai’s latest sentence have been ordered to run consecutively to the earlier sentence, and the fraud sentence must also be considered in this context.Did Jimmy Lai get a fair trial? Hong Kong legal experts rebut criticism from the WestDid Jimmy Lai get a fair trial? Hong Kong legal experts rebut criticism from the West