US-Indonesia deal threatens China’s ‘entrenched position’ in nickel market: analysts

South China Morning PostEN 2 min read 100% complete by Kandy WongFebruary 24, 2026 at 05:00 AM

AI Summary

short article 2 min

A recent deal between the US and Indonesia, granting the US unrestricted access to Indonesian industrial commodities, threatens China's dominant position in the global nickel market. Analysts predict China will respond by increasing investment in alternative nickel sources and strengthening its broader supply chain role. Indonesia has become a major player in nickel, controlling over 60% of global mine supply, largely supported by Chinese investment in processing capacity. This deal could reshape the nickel supply chain, as Indonesia's supply decisions significantly impact global nickel prices, as seen in the recent price surge following Indonesian mining restrictions. While a recent US Supreme Court tariff ruling adds uncertainty, the US-Indonesia agreement is seen as a significant challenge to China's influence.

Key Entities & Roles

Key Player Opposition Context

US Supreme Court 40% Natixis 50% Lavinia Forcellese 60% Alicia Garcia-Herrero 70% Goldman Sachs ×375% United States ×280% China ×590% Indonesia ×795%

Keywords

nickel market 100% us-indonesia deal 90% china 80% supply chain 70% indonesia 70% nickel prices 60% industrial commodities 50% electric vehicle batteries 40%