Unemployment set to hit 5.3% this year amid ‘worrying’ rise in young jobless

The Guardian - World NewsCenter-LeftEN 4 min read 100% complete by Tom KnowlesMarch 3, 2026 at 07:18 PM

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long article 4 min

The UK's unemployment rate is projected to peak at 5.3% this year, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), a rise from their previous forecast. This would be the highest rate since late 2020, with youth unemployment being a particular concern, reaching nearly an 11-year high of 16% for those aged 16-24. The OBR also downgraded the UK's growth prospects for 2026 to 1.1%. While inflation is expected to fall to 2% by 2027, the OBR acknowledges significant uncertainty due to global events like the Iran war, which could impact energy prices and inflation. Experts suggest that government policies, such as minimum wage equalization and increased national insurance contributions, may be contributing to the rise in youth unemployment by increasing the cost of employing young people.

Key Entities & Roles

Key Player Opposition Context

Iran 50% Office for National Statistics 60% David Miles ×370% Office for Budget Responsibility ×480% United Kingdom ×290%

Keywords

unemployment 100% youth unemployment 90% economic forecast 80% gdp growth 70% office for budget responsibility 60% inflation 60% national minimum wage 50% energy prices 40% hiring 40%

Sentiment Analysis

Negative

Score: -0.40

Source Transparency

Source

The Guardian - World News

Political Lean

Center-Left (-0.40)

Far LeftCenterFar Right

Classification Confidence

90%

Geographic Perspective

United Kingdom

This article was automatically classified using rule-based analysis. The political bias score ranges from -1 (far left) to +1 (far right).

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unemployment youth unemployment economic forecast gdp growth office for budget responsibility inflation national minimum wage energy prices hiring

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