Taiwan tensions No 1 in Beijing’s top 10 geopolitical risks of 2026: think tank

South China Morning PostCenter-RightEN 1 min read 100% complete by Shi JiangtaoMarch 9, 2026 at 08:14 AM

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A Chinese think tank, the Centre for International Security and Strategy (CISS) at Tsinghua University, identifies escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait as Beijing's top geopolitical risk for 2026. The forecast is based on surveys and interviews with senior experts. The report cites uncertainties surrounding US midterm elections and increased involvement from Japan as contributing factors. The CISS also highlights the fusion of economic security with geopolitics, noting potential protectionism stemming from US-led technology containment and concerns over China's trade surpluses. The report warns of a potential "three seas linkage" across the East China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and South China Sea, potentially leading to increased actions from the US and its allies.

Key Entities & Roles

Key Player Opposition Context

European Union 40% Tsinghua University 40% Philippines 40% East China Sea 50% South China Sea 50% Japan ×260% China ×370% Centre for International Security and Strategy (CISS) ×270% United States ×470% Beijing ×280% Taiwan Strait ×290%

Keywords

taiwan tensions 100% geopolitical risks 80% china 70% us 70% security 60% economic security 60% trade surpluses 50% technology containment 50% east china sea 40% south china sea 40%