China’s Russian oil imports spike in early 2026, but Iran war changes outlook

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In early 2026, China significantly increased its imports of discounted Russian crude oil, with shipments rising nearly 41% year-on-year in January and February to 21.8 million tonnes. This surge allowed China to capitalize on low prices and potentially build stockpiles amidst rising geopolitical risks. Russian crude constituted over one-fifth of China's total crude imports during this period. However, analysts predict that these import volumes may decrease in the coming months. This potential moderation is attributed to shifting sanctions policies aimed at stabilizing global energy markets and increased competition for Russian oil due to rising demand from other countries amid the US-Israel war with Iran.
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Key Claims (5)
AI-ExtractedThe total import value rose just 5.8 per cent in US dollar terms.
Russia’s shipments of crude to China rose 40.9 per cent year on year to 21.8 million tonnes in January and February.
Russian crude comprised over one-fifth of China’s total imported crude by volume in the first two months of the year.
China has been an opportunistic oil buyer, capitalising on periods of low oil prices to fill its stockpile.
Rising demand from other countries amid the US-Israel war with Iran could moderate Russia’s shipments of crude to China.
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