Analysis: Yemen’s future after the separatist STC’s expansion eastwards

AI Summary
The Southern Transitional Council (STC), a separatist group, has expanded its influence in Yemen's eastern governorates of Hadramout and al-Mahra in December 2025. This expansion intensifies Yemen's fragmentation beyond the conflict between the government and the Houthis, creating competing power centers. The Yemeni government warns that the STC's actions risk further economic and political instability, potentially leading to the suspension of IMF activities in the country. President al-Alimi stated that the instability would affect the distribution of salaries, fuel, and services, and damage international donor confidence. He called for the withdrawal of external forces from Hadramout and al-Mahra to de-escalate tensions and rebuild trust with the international community. The STC, backed by a regional power, is now the most powerful actor in southern and parts of eastern Yemen.
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