Majority of Russians expect Ukraine war to end in 2026, state survey finds

‘Main reason for optimism’ is a belief that war in Ukraine will end in 2026 with Moscow’s ‘objectives’ achieved,’ pollster says.Published On 25 Dec 2025A majority of Russians expect the war in Ukraine to end in 2026, a state-owned research centre said, as Russian forces make advances on the battlefield and efforts intensify to reach a ceasefire deal between Kyiv and Moscow.VTsIOM, Russia’s leading public opinion research centre, said on Wednesday that its annual survey of sentiment around the outgoing year and expectations for the coming year found Russians are viewing 2026 with “growing optimism”.Recommended Stories list of 4 itemslist 1 of 4Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 1,400list 2 of 4Three people, including officers, killed in explosion in Russia’s Moscowlist 3 of 4Zelenskyy unveils details of new peace plan, seeks Trump talks on territorylist 4 of 4Russian forces seize embattled Siversk town as Ukrainian troops withdrawend of list“Expectations for next year traditionally look much more optimistic … In other words, while the negative perception of the current situation persists, Russians have become more likely to accept (or believe, hope?) future improvements this year, but they still do so with caution,” the organisation said in a review of its survey findings released online.In a year-end presentation, VTsIOM deputy head Mikhail Mamonov said 70 percent of 1,600 people surveyed ​viewed 2026 as being a more “successful” year for Russia than this year, with 55 percent of respondents linking hope for a better year ‍to a possible end to what Russia officially calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine.“The main reason for optimism is the possible completion of the special military operation and the achievement of the stated objectives, in line with the national interests outlined by the president,” Mamonov ‍said at the ⁠presentation.Mamonov pointed to the Russian military’s ongoing offensive in Ukraine, Washington’s reluctance to finance the Ukraine war and the European Union’s inability to fully replace the ‌United States’ role in Ukraine – financially and militarily – as key factors behind the prospects for an eventual deal to end the fighting.