Iran threatens Bab al-Mandeb closure: How would that affect world trade?

EXPLAINERIf the chokepoint were shut, along with the Strait of Hormuz, a quarter of the world’s energy and a giant chunk of Asia’s exports to Europe would be blocked.Yemeni fishermen pass by a commercial ship at the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen, on April 5, 2026 [File: Abdulnasser Alseddik/AP]Published On 6 Apr 2026A top adviser to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has threatened that Iranian allies could shut the Bab al-Mandeb shipping route as Tehran has effectively done with the Strait of Hormuz.The Bab-al-Mandeb connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and is a crucial waterway for global oil trade. Its importance has increased since Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz – through which 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas is shipped in peacetime.Ali Akbar Velayati, a former Iranian foreign minister and veteran diplomat known for his influence within the establishment, warned on Sunday on X that “the unified command of the Resistance front views Bab al-Mandeb as it does Hormuz”.“If the White House dares to repeat its foolish mistakes, it will soon realize that the flow of global energy and trade can be disrupted with a single move,” Velayati wrote. Iran’s state-owned Press TV subsequently confirmed his warning.It follows US President Donald Trump’s threats to bomb Iran’s power plants and bridges from Wednesday this week if Tehran does not agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has said that Hormuz is open to ships from countries that negotiate safe passage – apart from the US and Israel. Trump has previously threatened to bomb Iran’s desalination plants.But if Bab al-Mandeb were closed, it would impact more than the ongoing war – it could compound the global energy supply crisis sparked by the conflict, deepening the economic turmoil being felt in factories, kitchens and at petrol stations around the world.Where is the Bab al-Mandeb?The strait is between Yemen to its northeast and Djibouti and Eritrea in the Horn of Africa to the southwest.It connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, which then extends into the Indian Ocean. It is 29km (18 miles) wide at its narrowest point, limiting traffic to two channels for inbound and outbound shipments and is effectively controlled by the Iran-backed Houthis.The Yemen-based group is a central part of Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance” – a coalition of groups ideologically or tactically aligned with Tehran which Velayati appears to have been referring to in his Sunday post on X.Why is the Bab al-Mandeb important for the energy trade?It is one of the world’s most important shipping routes.The strait is a vital route through which Saudi Arabia sends its oil to Asia. When the Strait of Hormuz is open, it is also a crucial passageway for Gulf states besides Saudi Arabia to export their crude oil, gas and other fuel to Europe via the Suez Canal or the Sumed (Suez-Mediterranean) Pipeline on Egypt’s Red Sea coast.In 2024, about 4.1 billion barrels of crude oil and refined petroleum products passed through the strait – that’s 5 percent of the global total.If Bab al-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz were both shut, that would block 25 percent – or a quarter of the world’s oil and gas supply.It’s not just oil: About 10 percent of global trade sails through the Bab al-Mandeb, including containers shipped from China, India and other Asian countries to Europe.With the Strait of Hormuz shut, Bab al-Mandeb’s importance has only grown.Saudi Arabia, which has traditionally also relied principally on the Hormuz strait to export its oil, has increasingly turned to its Red Sea port of Yanbu to ship crude out through the Bab al-Mandeb.For this, it has turned to the East West Pipeline, running from the Abqaiq oil processing centre close to the Gulf to Yanbu. The 1,200km (745-mile) pipeline is operated by Saudi oil giant Aramco.Where the East West Pipeline transferred an average of 770,000 bpd to the Red Sea coast in January and February, according to energy intelligence firm Kpler, Saudi Arabia cranked up its use in March, when Hormuz was shut. By the end of March, oil was flowing at the pipeline’s capacity of 7 million bpd – more than ever before.A Yemeni soldier stands guards in front of a commercial ship, ‘Al-Nuba’, which is docked for maintenance, on the coast near the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen,on April 5, 2026 [File: Abdulnasser Alseddik/AP]How could Iran and its allies shut it?The Houthis have already shown they can do it. During Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza, they blocked the Bab al-Mandeb for what they described as ships associated with Israel or the US.Because of frequent attacks on shipping, insurers refused to offer reducing traffic. In May 2025, the US and the Houthis agreed to a ceasefire and the Yemeni group has since opened up the Bab al-Mandeb again.Recent days have shown how easy it would be for the Houthis to repeat the disruption during the war on Gaza.Since late March, the Houthis have fired missiles and drones at Israel, pointing to their effective entry into the war – for now, against Israel, not the US.But Nabeel Khoury, a former US diplomat, told Al Jazeera that the missile attacks launched by the Houthis against Israel amounted to “token participation, not full participation”.“They have fired a couple of missiles as a warning because of all the talk of potential escalation. There are US troops on their way to the region. There’s been talk that if there is no agreement, there might be a full-scale attack on Iran as has not been seen so far,” the former deputy chief of mission in Yemen told Al Jazeera.If the Houthis truly wanted to enter the war, their weapon would be the blockage of the Bab al-Mandeb.“All they have to do is fire at a couple of ships coming through, and that would lead to the arrest of all commercial shipping through the Red Sea,” he said. “That would be a red line, and then you would see attacks against Yemen [from the US and Israel] very quickly.”What would a closure of the Bab al-Mandeb mean for the world?Elisabeth Kendall, a Middle East specialist and the president of Girton College at Cambridge University, told Al Jazeera that if the Red Sea strait is blocked, it would create a “nightmare scenario”.“Because if you have restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz at the same time as restrictions are escalating in the Bab al-Mandeb, then you really will disrupt, if not cripple, trade toward Europe. So this is a knife edge, really, depending on what happens next,” she told Al Jazeera.Kendall, however, said that while this was a “sweet spot” for the Houthis, the Yemeni group might not want to “provoke a Saudi or indeed a broader response.”