AI fuels global trade growth as China-US flows shift, McKinsey finds

Artificial intelligence has emerged as the driving force behind global trade growth, fuelled by a surge in data-centre buildouts at a time when geopolitical tensions are redrawing trade flows, according to McKinsey & Company.Global trade grew 6.5 per cent last year, outpacing the world economy, with AI-linked goods accounting for about one-third of that increase, McKinsey’s research showed.The category – including semiconductors, graphics cards, routers and servers – has been propelled by the race to expand computing capacity, led largely by the US, which added roughly half of the world’s new data-centre capacity in 2025.“[The trend] is on the longer side than the shorter … with multi-year, long-term investments,” said Kweilin Ellingrud, senior partner at McKinsey & Company and director at McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), the consultancy’s economy and business research arm, in an interview with the China-morning-post" class="entity-link entity-organization" data-entity-id="12558" data-entity-type="organization">South China Morning Post.Ellingrud said AI capital expenditure was escalating as companies and countries raced to avoid being left behind, likening the current investment push to a “space race” but with far greater economic rewards.AI capital expenditure is escalating as companies and countries race to avoid being left behind, says Kweilin Ellingrud. Photo: HandoutSince 2022, industries including semiconductors, cloud services and AI software have added US$500 billion in revenues and US$11 trillion in market capitalisation.