AI fuels global trade growth as China-US flows shift, McKinsey finds

Artificial intelligence has emerged as the driving force behind global trade growth, fuelled by a surge in data-centre buildouts at a time when geopolitical tensions are redrawing trade flows, according to McKinsey & Company.Global trade grew 6.5 per cent last year, outpacing the world economy, with AI-linked goods accounting for about one-third of that increase, McKinsey’s research showed.The category – including semiconductors, graphics cards, routers and servers – has been propelled by the race to expand computing capacity, led largely by the US, which added roughly half of the world’s new data-centre capacity in 2025.“[The trend] is on the longer side than the shorter … with multi-year, long-term investments,” said Kweilin Ellingrud, senior partner at McKinsey & Company and director at McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), the consultancy’s economy and business research arm, in an interview with the South China Morning Post.Ellingrud said AI capital expenditure was escalating as companies and countries raced to avoid being left behind, likening the current investment push to a “space race” but with far greater economic rewards.AI capital expenditure is escalating as companies and countries race to avoid being left behind, says Kweilin Ellingrud. Photo: HandoutSince 2022, industries including semiconductors, cloud services and AI software have added US$500 billion in revenues and US$11 trillion in market capitalisation.