From elation to frustration: Trump snub wrongfoots Venezuela’s opposition

There was unbridled joy among members of Venezuela’s opposition on Saturday morning as their country’s president, Nicolás Maduro, was dragged into US custody after an audacious raid on his compound. “The military strategy was brilliant,” said Ricardo Hausmann, a former minister and opposition supporter, said of the deadly nocturnal assault during which dozens of Maduro’s guards – but not a single US soldier – were reportedly killed.That elation was short-lived. Hours after Donald Trump announced Maduro’s capture during Operation Absolute Resolve, the US president dashed opposition hopes that their leader, the conservative activist María Corina Machado, would now be able to return home to inaugurate a new democratic era.“I think it would be very tough for her to be the leader,” Trump announced at Mar-a-Lago, claiming Machado lacked sufficient “respect” within Venezuela. Instead, Trump signalled he would recognise Maduro’s vice-president, Delcy Rodríguez, and he later warned she would pay “a very high price” if she did not toe the US line and “do what’s right” by opening Venezuela’s vast oil reserves to American companies.“[I felt] astonished, I could not believe what I was hearing,” Hausmann said, capturing the opposition confusion and frustration that their movement’s leader appeared to have been unexpectedly cast aside by the White House.“The political strategy that Trump and Marco Rubio have laid out is truly bizarre,” Hausmann added, warning that post-Maduro Venezuela found itself in “a legal and a political vacuum” and still under the control of “illegitimate leaders” led by Rodríguez, who was sworn in as interim president on Monday.One US official told the New York Times: “[Rodríguez is] certainly someone we think we can work at a much more professional level than we were able to do with [Maduro].”Machado, whose movement is widely believed to have beaten Maduro in Venezuela’s 2024 presidential election, sought to put a brave face on the situation on Monday, hailing Trump’s “courageous vision” and offering to share her Nobel peace prize with him during an interview with Fox News.“[Maduro’s removal] is a huge step for humanity,” said Machado, who has not returned to Venezuela since sneaking out to travel to Oslo last month to receive the Nobel prize.But analysts said opposition leaders were bitterly disappointed by Trump’s decision not to back Machado and Edmundo González, a former diplomat who ran in the 2024 election on Machado’s behalf after she was banned and who is widely believed to have won by a landslide.“[If I was Machado] I’d be feeling abandoned, I’d be feeling like I’d been left out there to twist in the wind, I’d be feeling insulted,” said Christopher Sabatini, a Latin America specialist at Chatham House.David Smilde, a Venezuela expert at Tulane University, said the opposition had hoped Maduro’s demise would pave the way for Machado and González to make a triumphant return to Caracas to implement the result of the stolen 2024 vote. “That always seemed like magical realism … It seemed fantastical and it actually was … I don’t think Trump cares at all about democracy,” he said.Pedro Burelli, a prominent opposition figure who is close to Machado, rejected the suggestion that Trump had thrown his ally under the bus. He insisted Trump remained “200%” committed to helping Machado and González take power and restoring democracy in Venezuela, despite the US president’s comments about Machado lacking “respect”, which Burelli called “bizarre”.“You eat a whale a bite at a time,” Burelli said, predicting that the US campaign against Maduro’s regime was not over and would continue even after his capture. Those claiming Trump had ditched Machado “are going to be very surprised as this thing continues to evolve”, he said.“There is a 100% understanding in the administration that the environment they want to create for [Venezuelan migrants] to return to Venezuela … [and] to get investments in Venezuela requires a democratic rule of law-based outcome. They absolutely know that that comes from María Corina.”Machado and González surrounded by supporters in Caracas in July 2024. Photograph: Matias Delacroix/APPedro Antonio de Mendonça, a coordinator for the international arm of Machado’s Vente Venezuela movement, was also adamant that despite Trump’s recognition of Rodríguez, a political transition was under way that would lead to Machado and González’s democratic mandate being fulfilled.“It’s a transition that has undeniably already begun because Maduro is no longer in power and … transitions happen day by day,” de Mendonça said, comparing the events of 3 January 2026 to those of 23 January 1958 when Venezuela woke up to find that its dictator, Marcos Pérez Jiménez, had fled to the Dominican Republic after an uprising.“He boarded a plane and at that moment people were asking themselves the same question: what now? What’s going to happen? And many people had many plans, many proposals, and, well, things unfolded, as we know. The same thing happened here,” he said. “What I ask of the people – not only Venezuelans, but also genuine democratic allies around the world – is to continue trusting in this leadership.”De Mendonça said Rodríguez’s new administration was already mired in doubt and suspicion. “We’re seeing deep divisions within the regime and a lot of distrust because they don’t know who’s going to betray who,” he said. “Things are going very badly for them. According to our information, they’re also seeing less responsiveness from their own people in the armed forces, who aren’t even returning their calls. They’re in a bad place.”Many experts voiced scepticism, while the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump decided to back Rodríguez after being briefed by CIA analysts who had concluded Machado and González “would struggle to gain legitimacy as leaders while facing resistance from pro-regime security services, drug-trafficking networks and political opponents”.Sabatini said: “[Opposition leaders] are clearly trying to put their best face forward on this and believe that there’s a larger plan at play. But underneath this all, of course, there’s deep disappointment.”Smilde sensed the opposition was now “bouncing back” from the weekend’s setback and trying to figure out what to do next.One hope is that the US may push for a fresh election in the not too distant future, which Machado should be well placed to win, although on Monday Trump poured cold water on the idea that a vote could be held in the next 30 days.Machado told Fox News: “In free and fair elections we will win with over 90% of the votes.”Freddy Guevara, another exiled opposition leader, admitted many opposition members would have preferred to see more full-throated support for Machado and González but said he believed that after Maduro’s exit Venezuela had entered “the beginning of the end”.“Politics is very … complex and unpredictable. But I’m pretty sure that now we have way more chances to get freedom than not … I think it’s an irreversible path,” he said, anticipating that US pressure could lead to the release of political prisoners and, eventually, free and fair elections.For now though, Rodríguez is the person holding power. “We prioritise moving towards balanced and respectful international relations between the United States and Venezuela,” she wrote on Instagram in English. The full five-paragraph statement made only a passing reference to her incarcerated predecessor.