From toilet paper to travel: why inflation could soon hit Hongkongers hard

With various Hong Kong industries battered by the world’s highest petrol and diesel prices, economists and business leaders predict the oil crisis caused by the Middle East war will trigger a wave of imported inflation, driving up the cost of items ranging from toilet paper and laundry services to asphalt.Analysts have warned that the adverse impact on inflation will be more immediate than the effect on economic growth, with some saying the repercussions will emerge in the third and fourth quarters.The spectre of soaring inflation could even haunt the Northern Metropolis megaproject while pushing more Hongkongers to spend across the border in mainland China, they said.Adrienne Lui, economist for China" class="entity-link entity-location" data-entity-id="21724" data-entity-type="location">Greater China and Mongolia and director of Asia-Pacific Economics Research at Citigroup Global Markets Asia, maintained her 2026 real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for Hong Kong at 3.2 per cent, noting that the energy disruption was “likely to be inflationary rather than too damaging” to growth.Lui’s team has raised its average consumer price index (CPI) forecast for 2026 by 0.3 percentage points to 1.9 per cent year on year to reflect about three months of elevated energy costs.Electricity accounted for 2.8 per cent of the CPI basket in Hong Kong, she said.