India has splurged billions on metro trains. But where are the commuters?

But these grand aggregate numbers mask worrying underlying data.Most metro systems in India have failed to achieve even a sliver of the ridership projected during their planning stages, according to experts.An Delhi" class="entity-link entity-organization" data-entity-id="119546" data-entity-type="organization">Indian Institute of Technology Delhi report from 2023 showed ridership of merely 25-35% of the projected figures across corridors. And these numbers are unlikely to have significantly changed over 2024 and 2025, one of the study's authors told the BBC.Other studies corroborate these findings. According to the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) think tank, ridership in some tier-3 cities such as Kanpur was as low as 2% of the projected estimate, while in the southern Indian city of Chennai it was 37% for the first phase.Data shared with the BBC by the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy (ITDP) also revealed actual ridership of between 20-50% in cities such as Pune and Nagpur in western India.Capital Delhi, which has India's widest metro network, is perhaps the only exception where usage has slightly surpassed projections.However two transport experts - Aditya Rane of ITDP and Ashish Verma of Sustainable Transportation Lab at the Indian Institute of Science in Bengaluru - told the BBC that this is because Delhi has begun to count interchanges as separate trips.Universal Images Group via Getty ImagesMetro travel in India costs more for lower-income workers than global benchmarksSo why has metro travel struggled in a country where car ownership is still low and other public transport systems are overcrowded and overstretched?It's a confluence of factors starting with consultants often inaccurately projecting potential demand, says Verma."It is a complex task [to project demand], and figures are sometimes exaggerated to show the project is economically viable," he said.He added that forecasts were often made based on "offered capacity" on the trains - such as a certain number of coaches, or frequency times for trains. In many cases these have never been realised.For instance, in Bengaluru, peak-hour train frequency on the busiest line is five minutes or more, while on a newer line, it goes up to 25 minutes. Similarly, the number of coaches on many trains is only between three and six, whereas the busiest metro rail systems in the world typically operate with nine coaches and a frequency of a train every minute-and-a-half, according to the Sustainable Transportation Lab.Affordability, or the lack of it, is another important factor.A single journey on the Aqua line costs 10-70 rupees (£0.08- £0.56). A three-month unlimited travel pass on the local Mumbai suburban railway is significantly cheaper at 590 rupees."In Indian metro systems, the integrated journey cost can consume 20% of income for lower-income workers, above the global benchmark of 10-15%," says Rane.Verma notes that there has been an increasing proclivity to reduce subsidies, which may not necessarily be a good idea in a price-sensitive country like India.This was borne out by citizens' demonstrations after Bengaluru metro hiked fares last year and ridership dropped some 13% after the hike, as per data collated by Greenpeace."Even the London Tube till today is heavily subsidised. Because there is a purpose. You are trying to provide sustainable mobility and decongest the city," says Verma. [Despite the subsidies, London's Tube is still among the most expensive public transport systems in the world.]Other issues that keep demand suppressed are poor network planning and last-mile connectivity."People will switch to public transport only when waiting times are as low as possible," Nandan Dawda, a Fellow at ORF's Urban Studies programme, told the BBC.In India, a big problem is the lack of enough feeder buses to handle last-mile connectivity, he says.For residents like Chetna Yadav, 40, who lives in north Delhi, safety is a prime concern."If I am coming home after sunset, I cannot rely on the metro. The station is about 15km from where I live and when I reach the final stop at night, it is next to impossible to get a cab home. I have been stuck in that situation a few times."Still, despite all these problems, experts foresee metro use continuing to inch up incrementally.Traffic, pollution, parking and road safety issues have reached a tipping point in many Indian cities. Calls to introduce congestion pricing for private vehicles have grown.Without the promise of a cheaper, more seamless metro ride though, a swift and dramatic rise in adoption will be unlikely."The systems most likely to improve strongly are the ones that get bus integration, station access and fare integration right. Without that, India may continue to build metros that are operationally useful but still underperform against their original projections," says Rane.Follow BBC News India on Instagram, YouTube, X and Facebook.