Conservative defections risk making Reform UK into Tory party 2.0

In the death throes of Boris Johnson’s government in the summer of 2022, Nadhim Zahawi was appointed chancellor by an increasingly desperate prime minister determined to cling on to power.The vacancy arose after Rishi Sunak, who had led the Treasury for more than two years, quit saying he no longer had confidence in Johnson to lead the country, setting off – with others – a string of high-profile desertions.Just over a day later, as ministerial resignations gathered pace to exceed 50, even Zahawi saw the writing on the wall, and called on the prime minister to go. But he stopped short of resigning himself.His decision, which meant he stayed on at the Treasury for a further two months and was privately branded an opportunist by colleagues, showed just how flexible he was willing to be when it came to his own career.Even Nigel Farage, who announced Zahawi had defected to Reform UK on Monday – the 20th and most senior ex-Conservative MP to do so – said at the time that it showed “all he’s interested in is climbing that greasy pole”.Farage has already acknowledged that lack of experience is one of Reform UK’s biggest hurdles in looking like a credible party of government. His solution to this appears to lie in enlisting former Tory ministers – with more defections rumoured to be on the cards.But it also presents Farage with a quandary: pack the ranks with too many former Tories and you end up creating Conservative Party 2.0, not long after the original version was booted out of office. Insurgents don’t tend to have been in power for 14 years.The attraction of Reform for former Tories has been clear for some time: the party is well ahead in the polls and – if it maintains that public support – Farage could be on course for No 10. The allure of returning to power is strong.But there’s no guarantee of a seat: Reform’s Zia Yusuf warned last month that “washed up” former Tory MPs who join the party will not be prioritised when parliamentary candidates are being selected.The Tories’ response to the latest defection was to brief that he had “begged” them for a peerage just a few weeks ago but been turned down because he lost a ministerial job owing to a row over his tax affairs.Zahawi has previously sworn he would be a lifelong Tory, posting in 2014: “Been a Conservative all my life and will die a Conservative.”At a press conference in central London on Monday, Zahawi said he had been given “no promises at all” about what role he could play for Reform, saying he switched because the Tory party was a “defunct brand” that could no longer form the next government.The big prize for Reform, however, would be to win over more sitting Tory MPs, after Lee Anderson and Danny Kruger jumped ship. It would herald the end of the Conservative Party if its numbers in parliament fell dramatically.Just six months ago, though, Tory MPs were deeply worried that many more of their colleagues would follow the pair out of the door, speeding up the party’s decline. That fear – while it has not gone away entirely – has at least dissipated.First, because while Reform still leads in the polls, its momentum appears to be stalling, prompting speculation it may have hit a ceiling to its support, which potentially makes it difficult for it to form a majority.At the same time, YouGov polling shows that Farage loses in head-to-heads with Keir Starmer, Kemi Badenoch and Ed Davey – suggesting voters could be willing to vote tactically to keep the Reform leader out of power.Second, because the Tory leader has looked, since the party’s autumn conference, as if she is very slowly starting to turn things around. Her party has always had a sharp survival instinct. It is years until the next election. For now, defectors can afford to wait.Nor is Zahawi’s defection risk-free for Reform – and not just because their purple ranks are increasingly tinged blue. He was sacked as Tory party chair in 2023 after an investigation found he had not been sufficiently transparent about paying a penalty to HM Revenue and Customs, as part of a total settlement of £5m for unpaid taxes.The multimillionaire businessman has previously faced scrutiny over past dealings with oil companies, medical firms and a tax haven, and has extensive business relationships in the Middle East, so is certain to have his commercial dealings pored over once again.With Farage’s political career littered with dramatic fallouts, opponents will be paying close attention to Zahawi’s relationship with Farage, a politician known not to enjoy sharing the limelight. The two men have sparred in public for years.In a 2015 social media post on X – which was only deleted on Monday – Zahawi called comments by Farage that employers could not choose British workers over Polish ones “offensive and racist” and said he would be “frightened” to live in a country run by him.There are also potential flashpoints on policy: Zahawi was the health minister who oversaw the successful Covid vaccine rollout during the pandemic. Reform platformed a controversial doctor, the cardiologist Aseem Malhotra, who claimed the vaccine had caused cancer in the royal family.For now, though, ambition appears to have won out for the former Conservative chancellor. He is unlikely to be the last to make the same calculation.