What next for Mali's junta after shock of rebel offensive?

It is hard to overstate the sense of shock reverberating across West Africa after attackers, in co-ordinated assaults, managed to enter Mali's capital, Bamako, assassinate the defence minister and recapture territory in the north.Residents in different cities across the country woke to gunfire and explosions on Saturday - attacks which an alliance of two groups - the separatist Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and the al-Qaeda-linked JNIM group - said they were behind.The scale of the offensive and the withdrawal of Malian and Russian forces from the northern city of Kidal, now under FLA control, has fuelled doubts about the strength of the military government led by Col Assimi Goïta, who came to power in a coup in August 2020.It has taken Goïta's several days to make an appearance since the offensive, prompting questions about the junta's future, as well as the role of Russian forces deployed in the Sahel to tackle the security threat.Scenario 1: Junta stays in power and fights backMany analysts believe this remains the most likely short-term outcome, as the military still controls major cities and towns as well as state institutions.But they say the coming days could be critical as the army launches a counter-offensive against JNIM and the FLA.Its success or otherwise will "determine the longevity of the junta", according to Beverly Ochieng, a senior analyst at global consultancy firm Control Risks.