China scraps tariffs for all but one African nation

But Sino-African trade is marked by a growing imbalance in China's favour, which means Chinese exports to Africa far exceed African exports to China, and that difference is widening.Last year, Africa's trade deficit with China rose by 65% to about $102bn.Africa's exports to China are dominated by minerals and raw materials, such as crude oil and metallic ores. Currently, China's main trading partners in the region include Angola, driven primarily by oil, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and South Africa.However, a consistent duty-free regime across such a heterogenous continent could result in uneven gains, Johnston notes.More developed, industrialised economies like South Africa and Morocco will be better positioned to expand exports, she says.On its own, the zero-tariff policy does not address continent-wide needs for economic restructuring and infrastructure upgrading, adds Jervin Naidoo, a political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa."Many African economies still face structural constraints, such as limited industrial capacity, weak logistics, and a reliance on raw commodity exports, which tariff reductions alone cannot address," he says.Getty ImagesAfrica's exports to China are dominated by raw materials, such as cobalt, seen here in a factory in the Democratic Republic of CongoAlfred Schipke, director of the East Asian Institute in Singapore, agrees that short-term economic impact "will likely be modest and concentrated in African countries that already have export capacity". "Over the long term, however, the potential could be more meaningful, especially if African countries are able to expand production, diversify exports, and move up the value chain," Schipke says.Amit Jain, another Singapore-based expert in China-Africa relations, notes that changing consumer demand in China could open up new markets for African producers. For instance, Chinese consumers are buying far more coffee and nuts than they did 20 years ago.Economist Ken Gichinga agrees."These new measures will improve access to Chinese markets, closing that trade deficit and expand opportunities for African companies to prosper," he told the BBC."For Kenya, it will be a big boost to certain subsectors such as avocado. The agriculture sector will benefit the most - macadamia nuts, coffee, tea and leather."Africa fiscal policy economist Wangari Kebuchi said short-term support for foreign exchange earnings and "a modest boost to agriculture, mining and logistics sectors" were welcome - but medium and long-term fiscal gains would not materialise from market access alone.