New Hungarian PM’s voters want action on climate and LGBTQ+ rights, poll finds

More than three-quarters of Hungarians who voted for Péter Magyar in last month’s election want his government to do more to address the climate crisis, and more than 70% want him to protect LGBTQ+ rights, a poll has found.Magyar’s opposition Tisza party won a supermajority in the vote, bringing an end to Viktor Orbán’s 16 years in power. The new prime minister will be sworn in on Saturday, weeks after the results set off celebrations in Budapest and Brussels.Magyar, a former member of Orbán’s populist rightwing Fidesz party, has a conservative background and avoided any pronouncements on progressive issues on the campaign trail, possibly for fear of providing fodder for the estimated 80% of Hungary’s media that is controlled by Fidesz loyalists.However, a poll carried out in the days after the election and published on Thursday suggests that Tisza’s voter base leans progressive, hinting at the conflicting pressures facing the new government.People take part in the Pride march in Budapest on 28 June. Photograph: Rudolf Karancsi/APAbout 77% of Tisza voters polled said they supported an ambitious climate policy, while 71% supported, or somewhat supported, the new government protecting the rights of LGBTQ+ people, an area that experienced dramatic rollbacks under Orbán.Pawel Zerka of the European Council on Foreign Relations, which commissioned the polling, said: “That was my biggest surprise in this polling. There is a very clear mandate for the new government to have a more progressive stance. But it depends on whether Magyar looks at his own voters or the overall electorate, as the Hungarian public is much more divided on this.”The actions Magyar and his government are planning to take on the climate and LGBTQ+ rights remain vague, despite more than two years of campaigning and a 240-page election manifesto.The poll also offered a glimpse of other ways the government is likely to be pulled in several directions: although voters overwhelmingly said they were looking for change, they remained split on issues that are critical to the EU, such as support for Ukraine and the need for Hungary to curb its dependence on Russian energy.Crowds cross the Elisabeth Bridge during the Budapest Pride march. Photograph: Bernadett Szabó/ReutersWhile 64% of those polled said they expected the new government to improve relations with Kyiv, support for the Ukrainian war effort remains low, with 24% backing the idea of Budapest providing financial support for Ukraine and 12% backing the provision of military support. More than half of those surveyed, 52%, were opposed to halting the country’s Russian energy imports.“Péter Magyar’s landslide victory was a vote for domestic change, not for a geopolitical U-turn,” Zerka said. “While Hungarians are ready to turn the page on years of corruption and isolation, they have drawn clear red lines around their country’s energy independence and national security – realities that will need to be respected by leaders in Brussels.”The findings suggest that the EU’s efforts to reshape its relationship with Hungary – long strained by Orbán’s efforts to paint Brussels as an enemy of the Hungarian people – will, in part, hinge on whether Magyar is first allowed space to focus on domestic change, even as the bloc races to work with him on unlocking billions in frozen EU funds.Zerka said: “The dilemma is that Brussels would want to use the opportunity for a broader U-turn. But if they push for these things too hard, they might divert the attention of the new administration and also risk breaking the neck of the new prime minister by placing him in a position where he would be seen by the Hungarian electorate as somebody who was forced by Brussels to accept unpalatable compromises.”Péter Magyar and Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission. Nearly 80% of respondents to the poll said they expected the new government to improve relations with the EU. Photograph: Geert Vanden Wijngaert/APHe pointed to Poland as a cautionary tale, where Donald Tusk’s popularity has ebbed as political polarisation prevents him from carrying out changes voters had hoped for.This risk is moderated, however, by the 79% of respondents who said they expected the new government to improve relations with the EU, with 73% saying they were confident that Hungary would gain access to the frozen recovery funds.However, Fidesz continues to wait in the wings, with 52 seats in Hungary’s 199-seat parliament and its potential power leveraged by the many party loyalists that remain in the state, media and judiciary.“Viktor Orbán still has ways to control the situation, at least partly through his people at various levels of state institutions,” Zerka said. “So while there are good reasons to celebrate today, there are also equally good reasons to be cautious about the coming months.”