Western diplomats wary of predicting end days for Iran’s regime

Western diplomats are hesitant to predict the downfall of Iran's current regime, wary of repeating the miscalculations made before the 1979 revolution. Prior to the Shah's fall, Western intelligence agencies and diplomats confidently asserted his stability, failing to foresee the revolution. This historical experience has made them cautious in assessing current fissures within the Iranian leadership. Unlike Reza Pahlavi, the Shah's son, who predicts mass defections, academic experts see little evidence of widespread dissent within the regime. Analysts at the Council on Foreign Relations note the lack of significant defections and emphasize that the protests have not yet evolved into a national movement with widespread support.

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