Can Manchester City overtake Arsenal to win the Premier League title?

EXPLAINERCan Manchester-city" class="entity-link entity-organization" data-entity-id="3536" data-entity-type="organization">Manchester City overtake Arsenal to win the Premier League title?With their grip on the Premier League title race slipping away, City face Crystal Palace in a must-win fixture.The pressure is on Manchester-city" class="entity-link entity-organization" data-entity-id="3536" data-entity-type="organization">Manchester City and their manager Pep Guardiola as they enter the business end of a thrilling title race [Reuters]Published On 12 May 2026Who: Manchester-city" class="entity-link entity-organization" data-entity-id="3536" data-entity-type="organization">Manchester City vs Crystal Palace What: English Premier League Where: Etihad Stadium in Manchester, England, United Kingdom When: Wednesday, May 13, at 8pm (19:00 GMT) How to follow: We’ll have all the buildup on Al Jazeera Sport from 16:00 GMT in advance of our live text commentary stream.Second-placed Manchester-city" class="entity-link entity-organization" data-entity-id="3536" data-entity-type="organization">Manchester City kept themselves alive in the Premier League title race with their solid home win over Brentford on Saturday, but league-leading Arsenal’s controversial win at West Ham United the following day again pegged City behind in the two-team fight for the trophy.Recommended Stories list of 4 itemslist 1 of 4Will Messi play? 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Both teams will then have two games remaining.A victory against Palace would keep City alive in the title hunt, but they would need to beat Bournemouth in their penultimate match to continue the title fight to the final round of matches on May 24.What happens if City draw or lose to Palace?If City draw, they will end up four points behind Arsenal, and in the event of a defeat, the gap would remain at five points. Dropping any points against Palace would mean City all but bowing out of the title race, even if they still have a mathematical chance to contend heading into the penultimate round.In such a scenario, Arsenal can be crowned Premier League champions as early as Monday, May 18. A win over already-relegated Burnley in Matchday 37 would mean Arsenal would be at least seven points clear, with City only having a maximum of six points available in their last two fixtures.If the Gunners are crowned champions of England, it would mark the end of the North London club’s 22-year wait for the honour.How does City’s and Arsenal’s run-in look?After hosting Palace on Wednesday, City face sixth-placed Bournemouth on May 19 before facing fifth-placed Aston Villa in their final game of the season on May 24. Both fixtures will be challenging as City’s opponents will be fighting to secure European football qualification next season.Arsenal, on the other hand, have a much easier run-in to the end of the season. They host already-relegated Burnley on May 18 and play away to Palace on the final day of the season. Palace will likely name a weaker side for that fixture, with their eyes certainly on their first European final: The Conference League final vs Rayo Vallecano on May 27.Is the Premier League trophy Arsenal’s to lose?Yes.Arsenal’s dramatic win on Sunday against their London rivals, West Ham, means they already have one hand on the trophy. Should they win their final two matches of the campaign, they will be crowned champions, regardless of Man City’s results.But any slip-up would allow their title rivals back in.Opta’s supercomputer has given the Gunners an 87.2% chance of winning the title from hereon.Can City and Arsenal end the season on equal points?Yes, it is possible.If City win all three remaining matches, and Arsenal draw one of their two games, both teams will end the season level on points.What happens in this case? Rule C.17 of the Premier League Handbook says the final table placings would be determined by the following criteria, in this order: goal difference goals scored points won in head-to-head matches away goals scored in head-to-head matches a playoff match. Currently, the goal difference between Arsenal and City is very close. Arsenal have a +42 goal difference, and City’s is +40. It could come down to goals scored across the season: City’s current tally is 72, Arsenal’s is 68.Manchester-city" class="entity-link entity-organization" data-entity-id="3536" data-entity-type="organization">Manchester City’s Norwegian striker #09 Erling Haaland is the leading scorer this season with 26 goals. Can he guide them to a surprise title win? [AFP File]If the clubs finish level on points, goal difference, and goals scored, City would claim the title on the next criterion – points won in head-to-head matches – because they have won four points against Arsenal this season, thanks to a win and a draw.The odds of such a scenario are very low, given City are lagging in the title race, but if this were to happen, it would go down as the closest title race ever. The previous closest race was in 2011-12 when City edged their rivals, Manchester United, on goal difference following Sergio Aguero’s stoppage-time winner against Queens Park Rangers on the final day.City still in the hunt for domestic doubleWhile City’s odds of winning the league title are very slim, they remain on course to complete a domestic double. City, who won the League Cup in March, face Chelsea in the FA Cup final on Saturday. They are bidding for their eighth FA Cup, having last lifted the trophy in 2023.Manager Pep Guardiola has backed striker Omar Marmoush, who scored off the bench in the last game, to have a key role in the closing stages of the English season.“We’ve talked many times,” said Guardiola. “I know it’s not easy for them [fringe players], but I’m pretty sure in the next games they’re going to play.“I want to rotate the team because otherwise we cannot arrive in the final or Bournemouth a little bit (fresh).“Especially Omar. It’s not easy because normally you just want one striker. He’s a proper striker but Erling (Haaland) is there.“Erling is so important for us, but the contribution of Omar – the amount of goals for the minutes played – is so high.”‘I love it’ – Pep Guardiola relishes title run-inGuardiola said he is “loving” the Premier League run-in, despite his ⁠side no longer controlling ⁠their own fate in the title race.“It’s ⁠not in our hands now,” Guardiola said. “They have to drop points. The only thing we can do is win again and see what happens.”Guardiola said win or lose, the thrilling race to the finish has been thoroughly enjoyable.Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta, left, and City manager Pep Guardiola exchange a hug before a game [File: Carl Recine/Reuters]He pointed to his team’s consistency, as their unbeaten run in the ‌league stretches back to mid-January. With another major final still to come, City have had plenty to celebrate this season, regardless of how the Premier League finishes.“I love it. I love to be here again, we’ll finish second again in this season, minimum,” Guardiola said. “Last season, we were fighting to qualify for the Champions League, was so ⁠difficult.“I love too Carabao (League Cup) in our pocket. We play an FA ⁠Cup final in Wembley, it is the most beautiful game of the season.”What happened the last time City played Palace?In their reverse fixture at Selhurst Park in December, City won 2-0, thanks to two goals from Haaland, including a penalty, and another by Phil Foden.Head-to-headPalace and City have faced each other in 75 games in all competitions since 1921.City have won 40 of those encounters, while Palace won 18. A total of 17 matches ended in a draw.Man City team newsDefenders Josko Gvardiol and Abdukodir Khusanov, along with defensive midfielder Rodri, are out injured.Predicted Man City lineupGianluigi Donnarumma (goalkeeper); Matheus Nunes, Marc Guehi, Nathan Ake, Nico O’Reilly; Bernardo Silva, Tijjani Reijnders; Antoine Semenyo, Rayan Cherki, Jeremy Doku; Erling HaalandEdward Nketiah, Cheick Oumar Doucoure, Evann Guessand and Borna Sosa are sidelined with injuries.Dean Henderson (goalkeeper); Chris Richards, Maxence Lacroix, Jaydee Canvot; Daniel Munoz, Adam Wharton, Daichi Kamada, Tyrick Mitchell; Brennan Johnson, Ismaila Sarr; Jorgen Strand Larsen