Threatened indictment of Raúl Castro ratchets up US pressure on Cuba

Tensions between Cuba and US seem set to rise further amid reports that Raúl Castro, the country’s 94-year-old former president, may soon face the type of indictment that led to the US abduction of the Venezuelan leader, Nicolás Maduro, in January.Although Raúl is officially retired, he remains the most potent figure in Cuban politics following the death of his brother Fidel in 2016, and by targeting him Washington appears to be heaping pressure on Cuba’s communist leadership at the end of an already extraordinarily intense week.The indictment, which has not been officially confirmed and would require confirmation by a grand jury, appears to be linked to the 1996 downing of two small planes belonging to a Cuban exile group called Brothers to the Rescue. The aircraft, which had been searching for rafters fleeing across the Florida straits, had flown over Havana to drop leaflets when they were intercepted by a Cuban jet.“You can get a grand jury to indict a ham sandwich,” said Pedro Freyre, a leading Cuban American lawyer in Miami.Reports of the possible indictment came the day after the CIA director, John Ratcliffe flew into Havana for a meeting with the Cuban ex-president’s grandson Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro and senior government figures.Ratcliffe’s arrival in turn occurred after a night in which protests spread across the island’s capital, as people struggled with 22-hour blackouts. Vicente de la O Levy, Cuba’s energy minister, had earlier admitted the island was out of fuel oil. “We have absolutely nothing,” he told state television.Since the abduction of Maduro, and Washington’s assuming control of Venezuela’s oil industry, the US has been pushing for change in Havana: either the fall of the current regime or, at least, the opening up of the economy to US interests.“I don’t think we’re going to be able to change the trajectory of Cuba as long as these people are in charge,” the US’s Cuban American secretary of state, Marco Rubio, said as he flew to China this week. Meanwhile Donald Trump has made it clear he wants to “take over” the country.For the last four months the US has imposed a strict oil blockade on Cuba, allowing only one Russian crude carrier, the Anatoly Kolodkin, in for what Trump claimed were humanitarian reasons.The US has also held bilateral talks with Rodríguez Castro, a decision that has caused widespread disquiet among many Cubans who complained that Raúl’s grandson holds no official role in government.Amid speculation that the US was trying to force a split in the government, Miguel Díaz-Canel, the island’s current president, held a press conference to confirm the talks, and Raúl Castro’s involvement, while Rodríguez Castro sat watching on.Until this week, it had been assumed the discussions were foundering as the Cuban government dragged its feet, hoping Washington was too distracted by its difficulties in Iran to push its case.Yet Trump’s growing impatience has been clear. He himself told a conference in Florida at the start of May, that he might have the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln “stop roughly 100 yards off the [Cuban] shore”. In the last few weeks, US surveillance aircraft, both drones and manned, have been tracked circling the island.“I still can’t imagine the US actually conducting a military operation with Iran still a mess,” said Michael Bustamante, chair of Cuban and Cuban American studies at the University of Miami. “But I also don’t think Cuba can afford that bet with no oil in the tank.”The result of the meeting between the senior Cuban officials and CIA director Ratcliffe remains unclear. Each side restated their positions, the Cubans clarifying that the island “does not constitute a threat to US national security” and the US saying it was prepared to “seriously engage on economic and security issues, but only if Cuba makes fundamental changes”.The US State department had earlier said they would offer $100m in aid, so long as it was matched by “meaningful reforms”. In an unprecedented move, Bruno Rodríguez, the Cuban foreign minister, said the Cuban side would be accept the aid, so long as no strings were attached.Meanwhile, Cuba’s 9.5 million population faces an uncertain future. What is certain, though, is that the lack of fuel on the island is creating a desperate present. Temperatures are rising into the 30s (high 80 fahrenheit) as summer approaches and people are struggling to sleep without fans, or keep food refrigerated.The Cuban economy has been collapsing for five years now, and many are destitute, struggling to find enough to eat. On Wednesday, as people came on to the streets to complain, one told Reuters it wasn’t political: “We started banging pots to see if they would give us just three hours of electricity. That’s all we want.”