Makerfield byelection is about more than Andy Burnham

The Makerfield byelection is bigger than Andy Burnham. Of the Labour MPs who were back on the constituency’s doorsteps in Hindley Green and Winstanley, just after an intensive local election campaign, many said the fight feels existential.It matters because it is probably the closest the UK will ever come to a direct presidential-style election, run through one single constituency and likely to decide the future of the Labour party.But it is more than that. If Burnham, the most popular Labour politician in the country, cannot win this Labour-held seat, then the party’s electoral problems run far deeper than Keir Starmer.Winning in Makerfield is Burnham’s proof of concept. He believes that a new direction for Labour – and a new leader – can stop the march of Nigel Farage and an impending Reform government.If he cannot win the seat, then Labour MPs will have to confront whether there is actually anything they can do to stop Reform taking power. It is a dark prospect to come to terms with – and which many said kept them awake at night.Reform won 50% of the vote across Makerfield in the 7 May local elections, and gained 24 seats on Wigan council, including in two wards in Makerfield" class="entity-link entity-location" data-entity-id="129437" data-entity-type="location">Ashton-in-Makerfield. Photograph: Joel Goodman/The GuardianDespite a majority of more than 5,000 at the last election, pollsters gave Labour a 5% chance of holding the seat at the next election. Burnham’s candidacy significantly changes that equation but it will still not be easy. The most recent poll put him just a couple of points ahead of Reform.MPs from across the north-west and from Burnham’s soft-left wing descended on the seat this weekend – before the mayor of Greater Manchester has even been formally selected to run.The reality of what is at stake is beginning to sink in. “I cannot tell you I’m not worried,” said one MP who had spent a day over the weekend in the constituency. “This is going to be really tight. Honestly doesn’t bear thinking about it if we can’t win.”“Somehow I have to accept that I cannot control this byelection outcome. But easier said than done,” another Burnham supporter said.One MP said they were speaking to voters who had “only voted Reform a week ago” and trying to convince them to return to Labour. “That is a very big ask we are making of people. We know we are going to be facing a very nasty and divisive campaign.”Reform won 50% of the vote share across Makerfield in the 7 May local elections, and gained 24 seats on Wigan council, including in two wards in the town of Makerfield" class="entity-link entity-location" data-entity-id="129437" data-entity-type="location">Ashton-in-Makerfield. Local Labour activists say while the Labour vote share held up, turnout rose in some wards with significant turnout from previous non-voters who came out to back Reform.But Burnham has the advantage that many of those who voted for Reform in the local elections have also probably voted for him too – he won 66% of the vote in Wigan just two years ago when he ran for the Greater Manchester mayoralty.A shopping centre in Makerfield" class="entity-link entity-location" data-entity-id="129437" data-entity-type="location">Ashton-in-Makerfield. The most recent poll puts a potential Burnham-led Labour just a couple of points ahead of Reform in the constituency. Photograph: Joel Goodman/The GuardianBurnham has told those close to him that he had always wanted to fight a Reform-facing seat like Makerfield – the area where he spent his youth, close to his family home, and the place where his children go to school.It might have been easier if he could have convinced Afzal Khan in Rusholme or Jeff Smith in Withington to stand down – both hold seats where the main challengers are the Greens. But in Burnham’s discussions with Josh Simons – who gave up his seat to trigger the byelection – the pair agreed that would not prove what they needed to show.The Greens are still part of the equation. If they put up a fight in Makerfield, Burnham will have to prove that concept as well – that a changed leadership and direction can also win back Green voters who have been disillusioned by Labour – and convince them he is the man to defeat Reform.It is – as Simons puts it – “the fight of our times” and Burnham can only change the course of history by winning. It is hard to think of a comparable electoral moment.