Trump’s shifting remarks on Taiwan are perfect for China to exploit

It has been an unsettling few days for Taiwan’s government. When Donald Trump met Xi Jinping in Beijing on Thursday, many feared the unpredictable US leader could upend Washington’s longstanding support for Taipei.But beyond a starkly worded statement from Xi stressing China’s claims over Taiwan, which it claims as part of its territory despite never having ruled it, initial signs appeared good for Taipei.An uncharacteristically sheepish Trump skirted reporters’ questions on Taiwan after he and Xi emerged from their first talks on Thursday evening. A White House readout of the meeting made no mention of the issue.But that welcome silence began to unravel onboard Air Force One on Friday, when Trump told reporters he would soon “make a determination” on pending multibillion-dollar weapons packages to Taipei – provided as part of Washington’s commitment to help Taiwan maintain its self-defence capabilities.An interview with Fox News, aired later that day, provided further soundbites, as Trump declared he was “not looking” to “travel 9,500 miles to fight a war” in Taiwan’s defence.He then described weapons sales to Taipei as a “very good negotiating chip” for Washington with Beijing, adding that he was “not looking to have somebody go independent”.Washington has long maintained an ambiguous stance on whether it would defend Taiwan if China were to invade.Donald Trump and Xi Jinping on a visit to the Zhongnanhai garden in Beijing on Friday. Photograph: Evan Vucci/ReutersTrump’s comments have stoked concern among Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive party (DPP), which supports a continuation of de facto independence.On Sunday, Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te, issued a statement emphasising that US arms sales were “the most important deterrent” to regional conflict. He described Taiwan’s security as a “core global interest”, saying: “Ensuring peace and stability across the Taiwan-strait" class="entity-link entity-location" data-entity-id="5508" data-entity-type="location">Taiwan Strait has always been a high consensus and common interest of Taiwan [and] the United States.”But while Taipei may be unnerved, J Michael Cole, a senior fellow with the Taiwan-institute" class="entity-link entity-organization" data-entity-id="129693" data-entity-type="organization">Global Taiwan Institute, cautioned against reading too much into Trump’s comments.“We need to keep in mind that he has a tendency to say many things – sometimes contradicting himself within 24 hours – in the moment, based on what he recently heard or whom he spoke with,” Cole said.“My expectation is that, recent remarks notwithstanding, the Trump administration will hew to the US’s longstanding policy.”Cole pointed to remarks by the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, affirming Washington’s continued commitment to the status quo as a more reliable gauge, as he called for observers to “pay closer attention instead to what the US does in the coming weeks and months”.This sentiment is shared by the DPP legislator Kuan-ting Chen, who said: “Taiwan should not over-interpret any single remark made during high-level US-China interactions.” Chen added, however, that Taipei “should not ignore the risk that China could amplify and exploit” Trump’s comments.Beijing has attempted to do just that, with state-run outlets suggesting that Trump’s independence comments had “sent shock waves” through Taiwan, dealt a “severe blow” to the DPP and issued a clear warning to Taiwan’s “separatist forces”.While Beijing’s framing may veer into the hyperbolic, the US leader’s remarks have exacerbated pre-existing fractures between the DPP and the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) – once combatants against the Chinese Communist party during the Chinese civil war, but who today advocate for warmer cross-strait relations.Yang Kuang-shun, a cofounder of the Taipei-based thinktank US Taiwan Watch, said any apparent sign that Washington did not fully support Taiwan’s independence was seized upon by the KMT to “push its agenda for opposing Taiwan’s independence”.In the days since the Beijing summit, the KMT has called for the DPP to abandon what it views as the ruling party’s pro-independence platform. It has also criticised the DPP’s handling of cross-strait relations, which have grown increasingly tense under Lai – whom Beijing has labelled a dangerous “separatist”.Charles I-hsin Chen, a former KMT legislator and chair of the foreign affairs and national defense committee, said the DPP had “placed a one-sided bet on its relationship with the US”, with Trump’s statements showing that Taiwan “cannot tie everything” to Washington.“This highlights the need for Taiwan to move towards an equidistant approach between the US and China – that is, to give equal weight to cross-strait relations and relations with the US – in order to secure Taiwan’s greatest interests,” he said.Chen, however, also expressed concern over Trump’s framing of weapons packages as a negotiating chip, saying that Taiwan could be reduced to a “pawn to be moved around” with “no initiative and no agency”.This concern that Taiwan may become a pawn between superpowers is one of the few points of agreement between the DPP and the KMT – though the parties disagree over the causes and solutions.DPP legislator Chen said that arms procurement cooperation between Taiwan and the US had “never required the consent of any third country”, referring to China, and that it “should remain that way”.“If arms sales to Taiwan are described as a bargaining chip, Beijing may use this to test the limits of Washington’s commitment to Taiwan,” he said. “Taiwan must make clear to the international community that it cannot be traded away.”