Kemi Badenoch emerges stronger from Jenrick’s messy split from Tories

It is never ideal in politics to have a senior colleague defect, hurling insults as they depart, but as the dust settles on Robert Jenrick’s move to Reform UK, many of the remaining Conservative MPs agree on one thing: it has left Kemi Badenoch stronger.“Historically, the party has suffered from two weaknesses: too many people trying to bring down the leader, and not enough leaders getting rid of those people,” one shadow minister said. “Hopefully now we’re all pulling in the same direction. Losing a senior shadow minister is not ideal. But given those basic facts, the day could hardly have gone better.”Badenoch set the agenda in pre-empting Jenrick’s likely defection by sacking him as shadow justice minister and stripping him of the Tory whip, leaving the Newark MP and Reform UK to play catchup with a late afternoon press conference.At that event there were slightly farcical scenes as Jenrick initially failed to appear when Nigel Farage announced him. Tory sources say they believe this was because they had just tweeted extracts of his defection speech, obtained by Badenoch’s office, leaving Jenrick making frantic last-minute changes to the address.“[Thursday] was really brutal and should give anyone else pause for thought,” another shadow minister said. “It cemented Kemi’s position as a robust leader, but it also showed that members – and probably the country – don’t like traitors. Kemi was right when she said he’s Nigel’s problem now. When I’ve talked to members, the phrase ‘good riddance’ has come up a lot. He’s not been helpful for a while.”Another MP was more brutal still: “Nobody cares about this. The internal WhatsApp groups are almost silent.”The big question for Badenoch and for Farage is whether any more sitting Tory MPs follow Jenrick before Reform’s self-imposed May deadline for defections. One of the most commonly cited names tipped to also make the move has insisted they are staying put, and others say Jenrick spent recent months more focused on his own profile than building a team of allies.The MP linked with Reform said not only were they staying put but they did not expect others to defect. “My sense is not,” they said. “I think it has really solidified people in the other direction. What Robert did looks really blatant and cunning. People really hate that. And the personal attacks on colleagues were really classless.”Another MP said: “Reform are the main challengers in my constituency, so there is an appeal. But polling can change, and why annoy so many people? As one of the remaining Conservative MPs, it’s a privilege to help rebuild the party. And anyway, who wants to be in the same club as Andrea Jenkyns?”Others are less certain. “These things are always difficult to predict,” a shadow minister said. “There are people who clearly thought that Jenrick should be leader. They are going to have to figure out how to be a team player – or go.”While polling can change, Badenoch’s biggest problem is that for the most part it is not changing very much. The YouGov tracker of voting intentions shows Tory support has risen recently to about 20% after months of languishing at closer to 16% or 17%.Badenoch’s standing with her MPs and, to an extent, ordinary Tory members has arguably risen more steeply since a generally well-received Conservative conference speech in October and a blistering response to Rachel Reeves’ budget the following month.“At least 40 people have, separately, mentioned the budget speech to me,” one Conservative MP said. “It’s amazing how little infighting there is. We’re all focused on getting [Keir] Starmer out.”This might be true for now but even though a poor showing in May’s Scottish, Welsh and English local elections is factored into calculations about Badenoch’s future, a result on current polling levels could be seen as sufficiently disastrous to change some minds.For now, quite a few Tory MPs are simply enjoying Jenrick’s departure. He had been in talks with Reform for months but nothing had been decided until Badenoch forced his hand.“It’s all so messy,” one said. “His departure is like some sort of horrible arranged marriage, carried out simply to spite one side of the family.”