Reform UK support could plateau as it relies on socially conservative views, study finds

Reform UK is becoming increasingly reliant on socially conservative views for political support, and therefore could struggle to push its poll ratings much higher, a large-scale research project led by the leading psephologist John Curtice has found.A study of Nigel Farage’s party carried out as part of the British Social Attitudes report found that while Reform supporters were disproportionately more likely to be unhappy with politicians and public services, recent recruits had seemingly more robust attitudes in areas such as diversity and welfare.Given such views were only held by a minority of voters, Curtice said, it was possible support for Reform might plateau close to its current percentage range in the mid- to high-20s.“Something like 30% looks like not an absolute ceiling, but they are unlikely to rise much above that given the character of the campaign issues that they are emphasising,” said Curtice, who is a fellow of the National Centre for Social Research, which has organised the annual British Social Attitudes project since 1983.“I suspect that given its current political strategy, that is probably a ceiling,” he added, while saying that given the current fragmentation of party political support, this might still be enough to win a general election under the current first-past-the-post system.This importance of social and cultural issues also meant that while Keir Starmer had argued the importance of improving services, such as the NHS, in countering populism, that alone would be unlikely to stop Reform’s rise, Curtice argued.He said: “Given the very sharp ideological distinctiveness, while improving the state of country will help, it may not be enough.”This year’s survey, which put questions to more than 4,600 people across the UK, examined the unifying characteristics of people who say they support Reform.Reform supporters are more likely to have voted for Brexit and be older, male and with fewer qualifications, it found, while just 9% of graduates back the party, against 40% of those with qualifications below A-level standard.A striking thread for Reform supporters was mistrust in politicians and the ability of government to improve things, including higher levels of dissatisfaction with the NHS and a greater tendency to agree with statements such as: “Politicians talk too much and take too little action.”They were also more likely to be worried about their own personal circumstances, particularly their finances.Reform UK party placards and union flags in Ashton-in-Makerfield. Photograph: Christopher Thomond/The GuardianBut more notable still were attitudes to social issues, with 67% of Reform supporters believing migrants are bad for the economy, and 75% thinking they undermine the UK’s culture, more than double the respective figures of 33% and 35% for the population at large.Similarly, 88% of Reform backers say equal opportunities for transgender people have “gone too far”, against 48% of the general public. Of Reform supporters, 52% expressed the same view about lesbian, gay and bisexual people and 51% about black and Asian people. Nationally, the figures for these were 27% and 17%.People who were both authoritarian and dissatisfied were particularly likely to back Reform, with support for the party among this “interaction group” rising to 46%.But when Curtice and his team compared the attitudes of Reform supporters gathered in 2024 with the cohort interviewed for this study, they found that the rise in new recruits was substantially driven by ideology, and not by discontent with public services and the economy.The report said: “Although unhappiness with the health service and people’s financial circumstances is more common among Reform supporters, it has seemingly been the party’s ability to appeal to those with a distinctive ideological outlook that has been more important reason for the increase its support since 2024.”