Divine intervention: why Pope Leo visit could be a godsend for Pedro Sánchez

While Pope Leo XIV isn’t due to touch down in Madrid until 10.30am on Saturday, his presence in the Spanish capital is already verging on the ubiquitous.The smiling, avuncular face of the first US pontiff greets visitors from posters, from the sides of buses, from commemorative travel cards and even from the digital screens on the metro system, where it flickers up between adverts for sun cream and banking deals.In the Plaza de Cibeles, in front of the wedding-cake palace that serves as the seat of Madrid city council, the huge stage from which Leo will say mass on Sunday in front of as many as 1 million worshippers is taking shape. The Paseo del Prado, which runs off Cibeles and down to the eponymous museum, is hung with banners welcoming the pope and urging the faithful to heed Jesus’s words in the Gospel of John and “alzad la mirada”, or “lift up your eyes”.Workers prepare the decorations for the grand papal mass that will take place in Plaza de Cibeles, Madrid. Photograph: Thomas Coex/AFP/GettyFor a country that is not the Roman Catholic redoubt it was 50 – or even 20 – years ago, there is palpable excitement over the first papal visit since Benedict XVI came to Spain in 2011. Back then, 71.7% of Spaniards described themselves as Catholics; today, that figure has slumped to 56.1%, with only 18.3% of them practising. Still, Leo may take heart from a survey that found that the number of young people aged 15-29 who identify as Catholics rose from 31.6% in 2020 to 45% last year.He will also find a land far more politically polarised than it was 15 years ago. Issues such as housing, immigration, public services and a seemingly never-ending slew of political corruption allegations have created a febrile – some would say feral – political mood.The seven-day itinerary for Leo’s first visit to an EU country outside Italy, which takes in Madrid, Barcelona and the Canary Islands, is a carefully curated mix of the official, the pastoral and the personal.Pope Leo XIV is scheduled to hold a mass in the Sagrada Familia, Barcelona. Photograph: Lluís Gené/AFP/GettyAs well as the protocol meetings with King Felipe, Queen Letizia and the prime minister, Pedro Sánchez – and the inauguration of the Jesus Christ tower of the basilica of the Sagrada Familia in Barcelona – the pontiff will spend time with homeless people, migrants and the professionals and volunteers who work with them.On Thursday, he will visit the port of Arguineguín on the island of Gran Canaria to speak to some of the people who have risked their lives on the perilous Atlantic migration route from Africa to Europe.Leo’s determination to highlight the plight of migrants and asylum seekers – at least 1,172 of whom died en route to the Canaries last year – will not go unremarked in Spain or beyond. The pope’s commitment to the basic human rights of migrants has led him to criticise the Trump administration, over what he has termed its “extremely disrespectful” treatment of foreigners in the US.That stance has also brought him into alignment with the policies of Sánchez’s socialist-led government, which has bucked European political trends by defending the economic and social benefits of migration, and which is now regularising the status of at least 500,000 undocumented migrants and asylum seekers.Pope Leo will visit the port of Arguineguín in Gran Canaria to speak to people who have risked their lives on the Atlantic migration route from Africa to Europe. Photograph: Angel Medina G/EPAAfter a meeting at the Vatican last month, the prime minister praised the pontiff for being a “moral compass in the fight against injustice’” and said they shared “a humanist vision of migration”.Such talk does not go down well with the far-right Vox party, which opposes the regularisation programme and its endorsement by the Spanish bishops’ conference.In July last year, Vox floated the idea of deporting up to 8 million people of foreign origin – including the children of immigrants – arguing that “it’s very difficult for them to get used to our customs”. The party later backtracked on the “remigration” plan.Vox’s leader, Santiago Abascal, recently took exception when the bishop of the Canaries diocese suggested that looking after migrants was a basic Christian, and human, duty – and that anyone who believed otherwise would do well to spend five days without food on a small boat.Vox’s leader, Santiago Abascal, has said the bishops are out of touch as regards immigration. Photograph: Daniel Gonzalez/EPAAbascal hit back by claiming that the bishops were out of touch and urging them to “leave their palaces and go out to see the consequences that illegal immigration has for Spaniards when it comes to healthcare, safety, salaries and taxes”. He later said that while his party respected the bishops’ conference – which he described as “a very important alliance within Spanish society” – he would probably not endorse the pope’s address to congress on Monday.“Look, if a religious leader – whether it’s the Dalai Lama, the pope or a rabbi … tells us that we have to accept a process of massive immigration and an advance of Islamism within society, then we’re going to say no,” he said in an interview last week.Vox’s lukewarm reaction to the papal visit is significant. Its “Spaniards first” policies are having a big influence on the conservative People’s party (PP), which is forecast to win next year’s general election, but to fall short of a majority, leaving it dependent on the support of Abascal’s MPs.Vox has recently re-entered three regional coalition governments with the PP after convincing the conservatives to adopt its “national priority” policy, which would favour Spaniards over foreign-born people when it comes to housing and benefits.People await Pope Leo’s visit in Barcelona. Photograph: Nacho Doce/ReutersAlthough the prime minister once described himself as “an atheist, plain and simple”, the timing of the pontiff’s visit could prove something of a godsend.Spain’s international profile is arguably higher than ever – thanks largely to Sánchez’s pro-immigration stance, his repeated criticisms of Israel’s war in Gaza and his stinging rebukes of Trump’s attacks on Iran. Leo’s presence will boost that profile further. A full-page advert in Tuesday’s Guardian, taken out by Spain’s tourist board, showed a picture of the Sagrada Familia with the caption: “We build peace. Good things are happening in Spain.”There are also more immediate political dividends. Not only will the pope’s visit reinforce Sánchez’s pro-immigration policies and put the PP in an awkward spot because of its growing proximity to Vox, it may also drag the spotlight away from the mounting corruption allegations facing his family, his party and his administration.The prime minister’s brother, David Sánchez, is on trial for alleged influence-peddling and misuse of public office while his wife, Begoña Gómez, has been charged with embezzlement, influence peddling, corruption in business dealings and misappropriation of funds, and is due to appear before a judge on Tuesday 9 June.A protester in Madrid takes part in a rally in May against Pedro Sánchez and allegations of corruption. Photograph: David Canales/NurPhoto/ShutterstockBoth David Sánchez and Gómez deny any wrongdoing – as does the prime minister’s socialist predecessor José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, who was recently placed under investigation for alleged influence peddling and other offences. Police are also investigating allegations that a team inside the socialist party acted to thwart police and judicial investigations that threatened the interests of the party or the government.But for the next few days, at least, attention is likely to be blessedly focused on the words and deeds of a 70-year-old American visitor whose purview extends far beyond the temporal.