IMF warns tariffs and geopolitical tensions threaten markets and global growth

The Guardian - World NewsCenter-LeftEN 3 min read 100% complete by Richard Partington Senior economics correspondentJanuary 19, 2026 at 10:30 AM

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that escalating geopolitical tensions and trade wars, particularly those involving tariffs, pose significant risks to global economic growth in 2026 and could destabilize financial markets. This warning comes as world leaders prepare for the World Economic Forum in Davos. While the IMF acknowledges that investment in technology, especially AI, has helped offset trade tensions in 2025, a renewed eruption of these tensions could negatively impact forecasts. The IMF projects global growth to remain steady at 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. The IMF upgraded the US growth forecast to 2.4% for this year, while the UK's growth is projected at 1.3% and 1.5% for the next two years, respectively.

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G7 30% Spain 30% Canada 30% Europe 40% Greenland 40% Rachel Reeves 40% Davos, Switzerland 50% World Economic Forum 50% UK ×360% United States ×370% Donald Trump 70% International Monetary Fund ×790%

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imf 100% global growth 90% geopolitical tensions 80% tariffs 80% trade tensions 70% economic forecasts 70% financial markets 60% investment 50% artificial intelligence 50%