Labor’s tax deal with the Greens is a crucial win – but its NDIS changes could pay the price

Greens Leader Larissa Waters (left) and Anthony Albanese (right). The Greens repeatedly stressed on Tuesday they would never vote for the NDIS bill. Composite: AAP/Getty Images View image in fullscreen Greens Leader Larissa Waters (left) and Anthony Albanese (right). The Greens repeatedly stressed on Tuesday they would never vote for the NDIS bill. Composite: AAP/Getty Images Analysis Labor’s tax deal with the Greens is a crucial win – but its NDIS changes could pay the price Josh Butler The victory may have dinged Labor’s chances of easily passing its significant cost-cutting reforms to the NDIS through the Senate in August Get our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcast The government scored a crucial win on Tuesday, securing support for its tax changes through the Senate. But that victory may have dinged Labor’s chances of easily passing its other major budget measure – significant cost-cutting reforms to the NDIS – through the Senate in August. Labor’s deal with the Greens sees an inquiry into the NDIS extended for two months, with plans for new public hearings and more time for a committee process, after even the health minister, Mark Butler, admitted he had heard “confronting” evidence from the disability community fearful of losing access to key supports. Eight additional weeks of a public inquiry, spearheaded by an activist party hellbent on trying to kill this bill, is not nothing. But more than that, the tax deal has infuriated the Coalition, whose support is now critical to passing the NDIS bill, and whose members are also raising louder concerns about the changes. Despite the Coalition long having held issue with the spiralling price tag of the NDIS, there is now the non-zero chance the reforms end up friendless in the Senate in August. Today, at least, the government is happy the negative gearing and capital gains tax will pass. Going into parliament’s winter break, Labor members will go back to their communities with a good message to sell: plans to do more for first home buyers, to level the playing field between ordinary workers and the wealthy, and on a broader meta-level, signalling Labor is not content with the status quo. Changes to taxing assets and wealth more equally to salaries and wages are popular in the community (even if taxes on investments and businesses are not). With One Nation on the march and Pauline Hanson sucking up much of the political oxygen with her populist messages blaming economic woes on migrants, this kind of big win – proving government can help working people, that voters don’t need to burn the house down to make change – can’t come soon enough for Labor. But the price to pay for the Greens’ support was extending the NDIS inquiry. The jury is still out as to who got the better end of that bargain. Some Liberals, even those worrying about the NDIS changes for disabled Australians, think the Greens were dudded on the deal. That an extension to an inquiry – the harrowing testimony of which the government has already largely downplayed – is a relatively minor dividend for backing contentious tax changes Labor was desperate to pass. The Greens repeatedly stressed on Tuesday they would never vote for the NDIS bill, and want it scrapped entirely, but also secured some amendments on the way through; the minister’s powers to alter support budgets will be curbed, and there will be more scrutiny on automated decision-making and algorithms. Could they have gained more? Maybe. But then again, the Greens were burned by perceptions last term they were too oppositional to Labor’s plans on housing and the environment. As the Greens used clever parliamentary tactics and public advocacy to push for Labor’s agenda to be more ambitious, the government was able to paint them as obstructionist and holding up progress. The subsequent election defeats of leader Adam Bandt and rising star housing spokesperson Max Chandler-Mather rattled the Greens – and you could understand them being more careful with how much they poke and prod and push their luck with Labor this term. But extending the inquiry gives the Greens and disability community a platform to keep fighting the bill. Disability spokesperson, senator Jordon Steele-John, claimed “momentum behind these cuts is crumbling” and pledged to “keep organising, campaigning”. The inquiry has already heard testimony from participants and experts in the field, the changes variously described as “blunt and inequitable”, “retrogressive” and likely to cause “material harm”. But judging from Butler and Anthony Albanese’s answers at a press conference, an extension to the committee seems unlikely to sway the government into making further major changes to the NDIS reforms. “Some of the evidence we heard from the inquiry was … obviously confronting,” Butler said; but he added that “the government remains convinced that this is absolutely the right package”. Asked by this reporter why so many experts and participants disagreed with him, the minister replied: “I get this is hard change and people are concerned about the impact it’s going to have on participants. Our job is to clarify exactly what that impact will be.” So with the Greens intractably opposed, the NDIS changes rest in the hands of Angus Taylor. Between dodging questions about whether he supports multiculturalism policy in Australia, Taylor remained coy on how the Coalition would vote on the NDIS. The opposition leader said he was “concerned about aspects” of the cuts to participants, but also reiterated the Coalition wanted costs to be “sustainable” and to find “an outcome on this as quickly as possible”. In opposition, Labor was accused of a tactic we at the Guardian dubbed “the bitch and fold”, raising major concerns about a change only to vote for it at the last minute. The Liberal anger at the tax changes, what they predictably called a “dirty deal” with the Greens, comes as more in their ranks raise alarm at how the NDIS changes will impact participants. Whether those factors combine into the Coalition actually opposing the NDIS cuts – or whether it’s Taylor’s first “bitch and fold” as opposition leader – will be revealed in August. Explore more on these topics Anthony Albanese Mark Butler National disability insurance scheme Australian politics Health Australian Greens Labor party analysis Share Reuse this content