Inside CXMT’s US$4.3b IPO: soaring profits meet US export threat and high-stakes HBM race

As China’s leading DRAM maker ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) prepares for its expected 29.5 billion yuan (US$4.3 billion) Shanghai Star Market listing, the critical question facing investors is whether the firm can convert its cyclical windfall into permanent industry leadership.The Hefei-based chipmaker enters the market at a uniquely lucrative moment: a global memory shortage driven by surging artificial intelligence computing demand has triggered a massive upcycle in pricing, delivering windfall earnings.In the first quarter, CXMT’s revenue jumped 719 per cent year on year, swinging from a loss of 2.83 billion yuan a year earlier to a net profit of 33 billion yuan. Its average selling prices are now within 5 to 10 per cent of global leaders Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron Technology, according to estimates by research firm SemiAnalysis.CXMT has started taking orders for its advanced DDR5 server memory products from Tencent Holdings and ByteDance after completing customer validation, according to a person familiar with China’s server memory supply chain, who declined to be named because he was not authorised to speak to the media.The chipmaker’s customer portfolio spans other tech giants including Alibaba Cloud, Lenovo, Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo, Transsion and Honor, covering sectors from data centres to personal computers and smartphones. Alibaba Cloud is part of Alibaba Group Holding, owner of the South China Morning Post.Amid soaring international component costs, Apple is lobbying Washington for regulatory clearance to buy memory from CXMT, according to recent reports by the Financial Times and Bloomberg.