Sun is setting on US dominance of the world, scholar Wu Xinbo says

China’s Politburo called for “forceful” countermeasures against floods and droughts as El Nino effects exacerbate the impact of extreme weather events in the country.Local authorities should strengthen flood controls on major rivers, improve rescue capabilities and bolster management of water sources, the top decision-making body said after a monthly meeting on Tuesday chaired by President Xi Jinping. Other steps include greater protection for agricultural infrastructure, according to Xinhua.El Nino effects have worsened heavy rains across China this week, and a typhoon is expected to make landfall in the south on Friday which could affect tourism in Hainan province and manufacturing in neighbouring Guangdong. The country simultaneously faces drought risks, which could sap agricultural output and worsen global food-supply challenges following fertiliser shortages caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.Bad weather could worsen China’s already weak domestic consumption and slow the nation’s economy. Figures for growth in the second quarter and first half are due on July 15. The Politburo will discuss the numbers at its month-end July meeting, which traditionally focuses on economic performance and the policy agenda for the rest of the year.The “sharpest” El Nino risks worldwide are in Southeast Asia, South Asia, Africa and Latin America, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization said last month. Pasturelands in those areas face a more than 50 per cent chance of drought over the coming months, it said. El Nino cycles can destroy harvests, kill livestock and force people to migrate in search of food and water.Related news: Factory activity in China expanded for a seventh month in June, capping the strongest quarter since the end of 2020, according to the RatingDog Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). The June reading was 51.7, easing from 51.8 in May. The average across the second quarter was 51.9. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. The survey, compiled by S&P Global, focuses on private and smaller companies. China’s official PMI, which skews towards large state-owned enterprises, returned to expansion last month. China’s grain imports rose sharply in the first five months of 2026, led by a 72 per cent surge in wheat shipments to 2.67 million tonnes, according to customs data. Rice imports jumped 63 per cent, barley climbed 48 per cent and corn imports rose 39 per cent. China will face increased competition for food purchases if El Nino hits global production, said Alfredo Montufar-Helu, China-based managing director at Ankura Consulting. Hong Kong is likely to see record high temperatures this year and next, according to city forecasters. El Nino effects could last until early next year with intensity levels hitting “strong to very strong”, the Hong Kong Observatory said this week. “The combined effects of global warming and a strong El Nino will significantly increase the probability and potential risks of extreme weather events around the world,” it said. How others reported it Disrupted production: Heavy downpours could disrupt grain production in China at a time when imports are under scrutiny. In the US, the weather is also turning hotter, a challenge for its grain farmers. “Even if energy and fertiliser markets normalise, adverse weather in major producing regions could still tighten supplies and place upward pressure on food prices,” Maximo Torero, chief economist at the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization, said by email. (Bloomberg News) Be prepared: How well China and the United States prepare for extreme weather will shape their future economic prospects. The harms of climate-related disasters can be mitigated with managed retreat of people and infrastructure from severely threatened areas, ambitious engineering projects to protect financial centres, robust early warning systems, and other forms of adaptation. … Today, China is investing far more than the United States in these kinds of measures. (Foreign Affairs) Feed dependence: China is also a meat powerhouse, accounting for the largest meat production capacity in the world – roughly one out of every two pigs slaughtered globally is slaughtered in China. Like the EU, it’s highly dependent on imported animal feed, in particular soy from Brazil, Argentina and, recently less so due to the tariff war, the US. Unlike Europe, China sees dependency on high-protein feed as a critical vulnerability for the country. This is the primary reason why President Xi Jinping elevated new proteins to a top food security priority in the 15th five-year plan. (Euronews) Targeted easing: Amid sputtering domestic growth momentum, economists say Beijing may roll out some targeted easing in coming weeks, but a policy pivot is unlikely. Citi economists think fiscal policy deployment has emerged as the critical variable and is poised to accelerate. This will likely materialise through ramped-up bond issuance, swifter government fund deployment, and the roll-out of an 800 billion yuan policy financing tool, equivalent to US$117.75 billion. However, the bar for a formal budget revision remains high despite a second-quarter slowdown, as Beijing’s full-year growth target still appears within reach, Citi told clients in a recent note. (The Wall Street Journal) Fading optimism: “What we’re seeing here is a renewed slowdown in the economy,” said Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC. “Some of the optimism at the beginning of the year is beginning to fade again quite quickly … The question is: have we hit a wall yet?” (Financial Times) The SCMP Plus takeawayThe Politburo’s warning to officials around China to gird for extreme weather comes as the annual summer flooding season makes an ominous start.Heavy rainfall is battering a huge swathe of the country, from central Hunan province to southwestern Yunnan, triggering fresh flood warnings. Level 4 alerts signalling a low-level emergency are already in place in central Anhui and Jiangxi provinces, as well as in Guizhou in the southwest.Catastrophic flooding has plagued China for centuries. Torrential summer rains and a build-up of silt regularly cause the Yellow and Yangtze rivers to jump their banks. This leads to waters inundating neighbouring towns and farmland, often with heavy losses of life and damage to crops. It’s also common for officials in other parts of the country to be grappling with extreme drought conditions at the same time.Still, the impact of climate change and more extreme El Nino effects are making the issue worse. For instance, last month an entire year’s worth of rain fell in just three hours in Hotan, a city that sits on the edge of the Taklamakan desert in the western region of Xinjiang.The Politburo, led by President Xi Jinping, has been pressing for better weather forecasting and disaster preparedness from officials across China, with the priority being preventing loss of life.Coming a close second is bolstering food security and becoming more self-sufficient. This is a key challenge, as China has to feed about a fifth of the global population while having just 9 per cent of the world’s arable land. Much of the country is unfarmable, mountainous terrain.China’s huge population makes it the world’s largest consumer of grains. Last year, the nation consumed 832 million metric tonnes, and this may rise to a peak of 842 million in 2035, according to the agricultural ministry. About two-thirds of grains are used for food, with the rest going to livestock and industry.Government food-security efforts in recent years have focused on increasing crop yields, maintaining the “red line” of 120 million hectares of land dedicated to agriculture, and building stockpiles to ensure adequate reserves.The need to ramp up grain output was among measures listed in the latest five-year plan, an economy-wide policy blueprint approved by China’s parliament in March. It advocated steps such as using modern technology and making agriculture more eco-friendly.“We should step up efforts to advance a new round of initiatives for increasing grain production capacity by 50 million metric tons and improve our capacity for ensuring the supply of grain and other major agricultural products,” according to the plan, which covers the years to 2030.China’s total grain production last year hit 714.9 million tonnes, representing growth of 8.4 million tonnes, or 1.2 per cent, from 2024. Similar absolute increases until 2030 would leave the country 8 million tonnes short of its target.Xi famously declared that the rice bowls of China’s 1 billion-plus people “will always be firmly held in their own hands”.This reflects concerns about food security and an element of geopolitics.Having to depend on imports is a risk if global supplies fall due to poor harvests, or if trade partners decide to use this reliance as leverage. That’s a trade-war tactic China knows all about when it comes to rare earth minerals.Such risks are fuelling efforts in China to pare imports and diversify supplies. For instance, the country imposes import levies to raise prices and support domestic production. The grain trade is “heavily influenced” by tariff rate quotas for corn, wheat and rice, according to the US Department of Agriculture.Soybeans are a key example of import diversification. China is the world’s largest importer of the crop because domestic supplies fall far short of demand. In recent years, it has boosted shipments from Brazil in order to pare a traditional reliance on US supplies. This strategy let the country halt US purchases last year in order to squeeze concessions in a trade war. It placed huge orders as part of a truce agreed between Xi and US President Donald Trump.Boosting domestic crop production in the long term will be key to further reducing China’s reliance on other nations to feed its people. The challenge is achieving this while also grappling with increasing risks of extreme floods and droughts.