Reform byelection campaign risks a replay of the Johnson error

To some, Nigel Farage appears to be in a trap of his own making, fighting for re-election in single combat with a giant bin before potentially having to do it all again against the other political parties. But inside Reform UK, the mood is upbeat. As one insider said of the prospect of a double byelection: “Bring it on.”This is not just braggadocio. Farage is an enthusiastic and highly skilled campaigner, and is clearly relishing the idea of going to his electorate with a “Clacton versus the establishment” message, although doing so twice within weeks might test even his commitment – especially when the Reform leader is forced to argue that the establishment is embodied by an anthropomorphised bin.There is, nonetheless, an inescapable sense of strategy being devised on the hoof, with the party’s idea of getting ahead of a forced byelection swiftly undermined by unexpected events.According to two Reform officials, Farage had been expecting the standards commissioner, who is examining whether he should have declared a £5m gift revealed by the Guardian, to report back this week. A highly critical verdict was anticipated, as was a lengthy Commons suspension.This might have triggered a byelection via the recall petition process. Farage’s pre-emptive resignation and re-standing, announced on Tuesday, was meant to be a way to seize the initiative.The first surprise came when the commissioner informed Farage that the investigation was being widened to look into allegations in the Sunday Times that he had received other undeclared assistance, from the long-term Reform ally and convicted fraudster George Cottrell.The decision to call the byelection was made days in advance, before that development was known. Despite the circumstances changing, Farage decided to press ahead. One Reform insider said it “did not appear to have been entirely well thought through”.The other surprise, of course, was the very swift decision by every major party to not stand, leaving Farage to contest a heatwave byelection in which the best outcome would be a decisive victory against a candidate pretending to be a space alien with a bin for a head.In an interview on the campaign trail with the Daily Mail – thus far the election strategy appears to be “friendly media only” – Farage admitted he had not seen this coming.“No, of course not,” he said, when asked if it had occurred to him that all the other parties would boycott the byelection. “Why would they? It’s a real election.”Farage and his allies have been flooding the airwaves with the message that Labour and the other parties are disrespecting the electorate, even running scared. The party’s deputy leader, Richard Tice, made chicken noises on GB News. On a marathon three-hour phone-in with LBC listeners, the MP Robert Jenrick said his party leader was being bold and decisive.Behind such sentiments, however, sits another narrative, one carrying far more risk.Building on the litany of grievances in his video address on Tuesday, Farage has claimed that the standards committee – a group of cross-party MPs and laypeople who will decide whether to endorse any punishment recommended by the standards commissioner – is biased against him.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionJenrick used his LBC show to go further, calling the process “a kangaroo court” and “a stitch-up”.Such language has an echo in recent political history, one that is not at all helpful for Reform.When a certain Boris Johnson was being investigated by parliamentary authorities, numerous allies labelled the process a “kangaroo court”. And that was over Covid-era parties, not undeclared gifts, some of which bankers have referred to the National Crime Agency.If there is one lesson from the Johnson era, it is this: the public is largely relaxed about sleaze allegations against politicians until they are suddenly not; protestations about witch hunts and the deep state are indulged until they are suddenly not.Sometimes the decisive factor is a single fact that sticks, but other times it is sheer repetition. In triggering an entirely optional byelection, Farage has given his opponents several more weeks to repeat the allegations about his finances.