USDA lowers reported beef export sales by 90% amid growing doubts over data

The US Department of Agriculture dramatically lowered its reported beef export sales for late June on Thursday, sparking fresh concerns about the quality of the agency’s data after staffing losses as part of the Trump administration’s reshaping of the federal government.USDA said exporters in late June sold a net 12,064 tonnes of US beef to foreign buyers, 90 per cent lower than the volume it originally reported ‌a week ago.Traders had largely dismissed USDA’s initial report as inaccurate. Trust in USDA reports has suffered among traders, analysts and farmers following deep staff losses and after the agency significantly underestimated corn acres last year.It also delayed a quarterly agricultural trade report and excluded findings that pointed to tariffs as a reason for a forecast increase in the agricultural trade deficit, which analysts said raised questions about its objectivity.USDA said it received incorrect beef export sales data and published it in a weekly report on July 2. The data showed that 2026 sales reached a high of 126,062 tonnes in the week that ended on ⁠June 25, up nearly 500 per cent from a week earlier.A US Department of Agriculture podium plaque is seen in Washington in March. Photo: ReutersTraders and analysts had quickly cast doubt on the unusually large increase because it included sales to some countries ‌that were several times larger than those countries had ever bought from the US.Amy Harding, an export sales reporting specialist with USDA, said last week that it had confirmed numbers with an exporting company.“Should the USDA have caught it? Probably,” said Austin Schroeder, a ‌commodity analyst at Brugler Marketing & Management. “They may have just overlooked it.”In the first half of last year, USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service, which oversees export ⁠sales reporting, lost about 21 per cent of its ⁠employees, according to government data.US beef prices have set records this year because of tight cattle supplies and strong demand for hamburgers and steaks from domestic consumers.Exports have declined since 2022 ‌because of increased prices and reduced production. The US has increased beef imports to make up for low domestic supplies.“We’re priced out of the world market to a certain extent,” Schroeder said. “It wouldn’t make a lot of sense ‌for ‌that big of an export number.”Further ReadingUSDA data released on July 2 included record sales of 38,434 tonnes to Chile and 32,274 tonnes to Italy, neither traditionally a ‌major market for US beef. On Thursday, USDA revised those sales to 367 tonnes to Chile and 350 tonnes to Italy.The agency also revised sales downward to ⁠14 other countries.Tourists look on as cowhands lead a herd of Texas Longhorn cattle during the Fort Worth Herd Cattle Drive in Texas in June. Photo: AFPExporters are required to report exports and sales to the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service in the week during which they occur.This spring, USDA launched a new ⁠export sales reporting system after a failed roll-out in 2022 delayed export sales reports for three weeks.“It wouldn’t be a shock to see some minor corrections following their switch to the new reporting system in March, but nowhere near this volume,” Mike Castle, senior commodities economist for consultancy StoneX, said last week.Before correcting the figures, USDA said on ‌July 2 that multiple sales had been reported late and that it had confirmed the accuracy of data with an exporter.“As part of the Export Sales Reporting team’s data review of weekly submissions, the exporting company was contacted and the ESR team confirmed that the quantities are correct and were reported as MTs,” USDA said on July 2, using an abbreviation for metric tons.On Thursday, the USDA said that the exports had been “reported in error”, but provided no further explanation.