FIFA World Cup: Which semifinal team has best chance to win the trophy?

Form guide on the final eight teams as they battle it out for the FIFA-world-cup-2026" class="entity-link entity-event" data-entity-id="1548" data-entity-type="event">FIFA World Cup 2026 trophy in the United States.World Cup holders Argentina are considered the outsiders from the final four teams [AFP]Published On 13 Jul 2026The football teams of forty-eight countries set out with a chance of winning the World Cup on June 11, and the hopes of just four nations remain alive.The top four teams in the FIFA rankings, with eight previous titles between them, will lock horns on Tuesday and Wednesday to try to secure a place in what is set to be the grandest of showpiece occasions in sport: the World Cup Final at New York New Jersey Stadium on Sunday, July 19.Recommended Stories list of 4 itemslist 1 of 4Which teams are in the World Cup semifinals, and what’s the match schedule?list 2 of 4FIFA World Cup 2026: Biggest takeaways from the quarterfinalslist 3 of 4Senegal fire coach Pape Thiaw after disappointing World Cuplist 4 of 4FIFA, Infantino, to examine 64-team World Cup for 2030 tournamentend of listAl Jazeera ranks the contenders for the title:Argentina’s Lionel Messi takes a break during the quarterfinal [Lee Smith/Reuters]4. ArgentinaWhat’s this? The defending champions as the outsiders?Well, Algeria, Austria, Jordan, Cape Verde, Egypt and Switzerland must be one of the kindest ever paths to the business end of a World Cup, and La Albiceleste have not exactly been convincing along it.They were made to sweat by Cape Verde and Egypt in the knockout stages before finding a way to prevail in dramatic circumstances, and the pattern was repeated against Switzerland in Kansas City on Saturday night, when they went almost 90 minutes without a shot on target following Alexis Mac Allister’s early opening goal.Their ageing side eventually prevailed after 120 minutes in sweltering conditions. Had Switzerland kept 11 men on the field, things might have been very different, but, once again, in the end, the defending champions found a way to win when they were well below their best.Surely they cannot get away with another performance like that against England? Well, England fans might well be saying the same about the Three Lions. Both Harry Kane and Lionel Messi fell well short of their best in the last-eight matchups too.The outpouring of emotion from Messi at full-time in the comeback win over Egypt showed just how close the three-time winners came to being eliminated. In an already emotionally charged matchup with England, expect tempers to rise and tears to flow on either side come full-time.If Argentina, and – in his first-ever appearance against the Three Lions – Messi, are able to rediscover their swagger and win, ousting their old foes from the tournament in the knockout stages for a third straight time, then the confidence and momentum they would take into the final would be huge.However, nothing they have shown in the US this summer would suggest that is likely to happen.And even if it did, whether it would be enough to give them the edge against European champions Spain, or a vengeful France side they vanquished on penalties in the epic final of Qatar 2022, is another matter entirely.England’s Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane celebrate after beating Norway [Paul Childs/Reuters]3. EnglandHave we seen the best of England in this tournament? Probably not. And yet, here they are, in the semifinals for just the fourth time ever.The win over Norway was neither pretty nor convincing, and manager Thomas Tuchel admitted they were lucky to get through, thanks largely to Jude Bellingham putting the team on his shoulders at a couple of key moments once again. Could a midfielder really win the Golden Boot? He is only two behind Messi and Kylian Mbappe with six goals already.Much to Tuchel’s frustration, bar a 20-minute purple patch in the second half of the 4-2 opening game win against Croatia, England have yet to dominate a team, and relied on counterattacking bursts to give them a 3-2 lead to defend in the epic round-of-16 victory over Mexico in the cauldron of the Azteca.What they have shown is character, in abundance, and they will likely need plenty more of that if they are to end 60 years of longing for a second World Cup title.The game against Argentina will be far more than 11 vs 11; the ghosts of football history will line up alongside both teams, and the hype and pressure are sure to be enormous.A few possible positives for England will be that they have already made par for this tournament: Ranked fourth in the world, they have reached the last four. Anything else would be a bonus. Nobody really considers them a top-two team in the world, which might help to alleviate some of the burden of expectation.After a trip to the altitude of Mexico City, and the oppressive heat and humidity of Miami, a return to the 22-Celsius (71.6F) climate-controlled confines of Atlanta, where England overcame DR Congo in the round of 32, will be welcome.They also have no new suspensions to deal with, with Jarell Quansah left with one game of his two-match ban to serve; and there were minutes for Reece James against Norway. England will meanwhile be hoping Declan Rice recovers fully after a 45-minute cameo in which he was patently not fit following illness.An ageing Argentina side have struggled against the pace, movement and trickery of Cape Verde, Egypt and Switzerland in the past three rounds, and Bukayo Saka, Anthony Gordon, and even Marcus Rashford will be even better placed to exploit that.Beyond Messi, Argentina have not posed too many attacking questions themselves, though Julian Alvarez’s stunning strike against Switzerland might just be the start of his own World Cup.All things considered, expect England to make it through to the final, but France would likely be a step too far, and even Spain would be a big ask, despite the additional motivation of revenge for their Euro 2024 final defeat.Spain’s Mikel Merino celebrates the victory against Belgium [Jessie Alcheh/Reuters]2. SpainThey are the third semifinalists yet to find top gear at this tournament, bar a one-sided display against Austria in the round of 32.La Roja’s stoic defence might have been punctured for the first time this summer by Belgium in the last eight, but the 649 minutes that preceded that goal were the longest streak in World Cup history without conceding, and they have still allowed just seven shots on target in their six matches so far.Though the goal contribution stats might not reflect it, Lamine Yamal has shown flashes of a return to top form after that season-ending hamstring injury in April, while La Roja’s carousel of tricky attackers has posed problems for defences in all six matches so far, and Mikel Merino has written himself into folklore with last-gasp winners against Portugal and Belgium.Four-goal leading scorer Mikel Oyarzabal has gone off the boil in the past couple of games, however, and is unlikely to strike too much fear into the French backline.While teenage defender Pau Cubarsi looks at home on the biggest stage of all, he is yet to face the kind of test that Kylian Mbappe, Michael Olise and Ousmane Dembele will pose.If they make the final, Spain will be favourites to win it, and they have won the World Cup the only time they previously reached the last four, but despite having beaten France in their past two encounters, a third should be beyond them.France’s forward line of Kylian Mbappe (bottom), Ousmane Dembele (top), Bradley Barcola (right), and Michael Olise (left) is considered the strongest at the tournament [Mauro Pimentel/AFP]1. FranceBefore their last-eight matchup with Morocco, we asserted that France were the class of the field with a fearsome foursome in attack and a defence that, although it had not really been tested yet, had only allowed two goals in five matches.Well, make that two in six, even if they still have not really been tested, such was the Atlas Lions’ toothless attack on the night in their 2-0 defeat.