Has Ukraine’s Zelenskyy created a rival by sacking his defence minister?

Rallies in support of sacked Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov have exposed a political challenge for Zelenskyy, as the president’s ratings are sinking, say analysts.A rally protesting against the dismissal of Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov in central Kyiv, on Thursday, July 16, 2026 [Mansur Mirovalev/Al Jazeera]Published On 17 Jul 2026Kyiv, Ukraine – At 35, with no military background or battlefield experience, Mykhailo Fedorov seemed unfit to be wartime Ukraine’s defence minister.But he was acclaimed for his reforms while serving as Ukraine’s minister of digital transformation, and his new duties included logistics, budgets, reforms, Anticorruption measures and deals to secure multibillion-dollar Western aid or loans.After his appointment in January, Fedorov provided Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy with a list of urgent problems and ways to solve them. He mentioned a “chaotic” management system, constant rotations of commanding officers, non-transparent distribution of arms and military equipment, bureaucracy, resistance to reforms from Commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskii’s General Staff of Armed Forces, decision-making based on loyalty and not data analysis, and “isolation” of effective commanders and proponents of reforms.Then on Wednesday, just seven months into his role, Fedorov was removed from his position by Zelenskyy. The changes that Fedorov was trying to bring about in Ukraine’s military had angered Syrskii. But Fedorov’s ouster appears to have angered Ukrainians even more — potentially presenting Zelenskyy with a political challenge.Rallies, relatively large by wartime Ukraine’s standards, have since erupted in Kyiv and key Ukrainian cities.“He’s a young, smart, educated person who proved with his previous job that he really is a reformer and can make Ukraine a nation of the future,” Taisiya, who rallied on Thursday in central Kyiv, told Al Jazeera.“He’s outstanding, because he’s a decent, honest person, and I believe him, and I’d like to actually see him as Ukraine’s president,” she said, withholding her last name for security reasons.Outgoing Ukraine Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov speaks during a briefing to journalists in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Thursday, July 16, 2026 [Dan Bashakov/AP Photo]The reformerTo be sure, even while Fedorov was heading the defence ministry, the actual combat planning and operations were helmed by Syrskii, a 60-year-old four-star general who won praise for defending Kyiv and expelling Russians from northeastern Ukraine in 2022, but who was dubbed a “butcher” for his reported indifference to losses of soldiers.But away from the battlefield, Fedorov tried to transform what the Ukrainian military and its capabilities looked like.He began tech-driven reforms that appeared like Silicon Valley’s revision of the military playbook. He boosted the number of drones, especially mid and long-range bombers that paralysed Russia’s supply routes, destroyed arms and fuel depots, oil refineries and air defence systems, resulting in what many already call a turning point in the war.He promoted AI-driven drones that identify targets without communication with human pilots that Russia can jam, and increased the number of ground robots to supply food and ammunition and rescue wounded soldiers. Fedorov also cracked down on corruption schemes by making procurement of new weaponry more transparent.The reforms infuriated Syrskii, but eased the lives of average servicemen.“Fedorov improved his ministry’s efficiency, and it reflected on the success of Ukraine’s strikes on Russia,” Kyiv-based analyst Ihar Tyshkevich told Al Jazeera. Considering that Syrskii is “utterly unpopular, most of Ukrainians thanked Fedorov,” he said.A resident looks at burned-out vehicles following a Russian missile attack in Odesa, Ukraine, on Friday, July 17, 2026 [Michael Shtekel/AP Photo]View from the front lineProtesters on Thursday held pieces of cardboard with slogans such as “Fedorov is hell for Russia”, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it!”, and “Zelenskyy shot himself in the foot.”There were not many servicemen in the rally in Kyiv, and most abstained from comments, citing possible reprisals from commanders.But the few who spoke out praised Fedorov’s achievements.“There were no miracles. But the results were good,” Boris, a drone pilot on leave from the eastern front, told Al Jazeera, withholding his last name in accordance with wartime protocol.Fedorov hasn’t solved many problems – such as finite terms of service for the soldiers who enlisted years ago and are kept on the front line despite physical and psychological wounds, Boris said. He also hasn’t boosted the number of recruits amid a widely criticised and extremely unpopular conscription campaign, and hasn’t decreased the number of deserters, Boris said.But he took simple and unorthodox steps.In February, Fedorov convinced billionaire Elon Musk’s SpaceX company, which operates Starlink satellite modems, to shut down all modems in Ukraine.Starlink went back online only after a verification procedure – and thousands of modems smuggled to Russia and used by its forces in occupied Ukrainian regions never lit up again.The move temporarily ruined the precision of Moscow’s drone attacks and the quality of communications between servicemen and commanders.“Cotton is rejoicing [over Fedorov’s sacking],” Ukrainian serviceman Boris concluded gloomily, referring to pro-war Russians, as other servicemen near the picket line nodded approvingly.Some Russian analysts appear to agree.“It’s very good that Zelenskyy removed [Fedorov] from managing the army,” Russian military blogger Alexey Zhivov wrote on Telegram. “He was too smart and effective for an enemy. Things must get easier now.”Pro-Kremlin pundits have begun pushing conspiracy theories about Fedorov’s alleged attempt to topple Zelenskyy. “This is a political riot. An accurate one – Fedorov doesn’t demand Zelenskyy’s resignation, he simply urges him to cancel his decision and make an opposite one,” Moscow-based analyst Sergey Markov wrote on Telegram.Ukrainians rally to protest against the dismissal of Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov in central Kyiv on Thursday, July 16, 2026 [Mansur Mirovalev/Al Jazeera]‘Zelenskyy doesn’t have a solution’Rallies, protest resignations by two of Fedorov’s advisers, and the reported reluctance of the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s lower house of parliament, to vote in a new defence minister, prove that Zelenskyy faces “a stalemate situation,” according to Volodymyr Fesenko, the head of the Kyiv-based Penta think tank.“So far, Zelenskyy doesn’t have a solution,” Fesenko told Al JazeeraAnd Fedorov has started fighting back. He called a news briefing on Thursday, accusing top general Syrskii of “weaving intrigues” and attempts to “split” Ukraine instead of fighting the war.“Syrskii saved our country in 2022, but the war has changed completely, and we have to change, too,” Fedorov said. “We took the initiative on the battlefield and in the sky, and now this trajectory is being broken. That’s why people are protesting.”Fedorov also insisted on staying loyal to Zelenskyy and hinted that his decision to replace him wasn’t final.However, the rallies and a boost in Fedorov’s popularity may further estrange him from the president who wants to win a second term after the war amid sinking approval ratings caused by corruption scandals involving his key allies.“All of a sudden, Fedorov enters and gains popularity, and Zelenskyy, who’s not getting popular, dismisses him,” analyst Tyshkevich said, adding that the sacking turned Fedorov into a “typical popular hero who suffered for the truth”.